Carlsberg Malaysia to bounce back in 4Q

KUALA LUMPUR: Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd is forecast for a strong finish to the year as its earnings undergo a sharp recovery in the final quarter amid the reopening of the economy.

Kenanga Research said in a note that the brewer is poised to gain in the longer-term due to the further easing of lockdown measures in both Singapore and Malaysia.

"Planned reopening of Malaysia’s borders to international tourists coupled with the upliftment of interstate travel could be a major driver for higher sales," it said.

It noted also the absence of a much-speculated increase in excise duty, which is seen as a plus.

"We expect 4QFY21 to be much better – recall that during the last pre-pandemic quarter of 4QFY19, CAB achieved a CNP of RM70m," said Kenanga.

Carlsberg Malaysia's core net profit for the ninth months to Sept 30, 2021, came to just 62% of Kenanga's and consensus full-year estimates.

However, the research firm said this was not surprising given the disruptions to its local operations from the brewery suspension and disruptions in distribution and dine-in restrictions.

Post-results, it maintained its FY21 core net profit forecast by reduce FY22 core net profit by 7.5%, reflecting the impact arising from the Prosperity Tax.

It maintained "market perform" with an unchanged target price of RM23.10 on FY22 price-earnings of 27.4 times.
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