The Week Ahead - IPI figures, Singapore GDP, China inflation, FOMC meeting

IPI figures

THE industrial production index (IPI) and manufacturing sales for August 2021 are the main focus during this relatively light week for economic data.

The IPI is expected to be 4.3% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.

Analysts expect the IPI to recover as more industries were allowed to operate in August.

In July 2021, the IPI declined 5.2% as compared to the same month of the previous year. Meanwhile, manufacturing sales in July 2021 stood at RM119.8bil, up 0.6% year-on-year.

Singapore GDP

SINGAPORE will release advanced estimates of the third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects Q3 GDP to ease to 7.1% year-on-year from 14.7% in Q2.

Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry has upgraded the country’s GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 6% to 7% from 4% to 6%.

In addition, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will also release its monetary policy statement on the same day.

UOB expects MAS to keep policy unchanged at the bi-annual meeting.

MAS is expected to keep its exchange-rate based policy settings unchanged, a Reuters poll showed.

China trade, inflation data

CHINA is expected to release its external trade and inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Also expected this week are September loans and money supply, and foreign direct investment (FDI) data.

Its export is expected to grow 22.3% year-on-year, while inflation is expected to expand 0.9% in September.

IHS Markit said China’s factory gate inflation is expected to stay aloft, as inflationary pressures picked up in September amid material shortages.

FOMC meeting minutes, inflation

THE Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September meeting minutes due this week will be scrutinised to assess lift-off criteria.

According to IHS Markit, the minutes would be studied for hints on the exact timing that the Federal Reserve may go about withdrawing stimulus and, to a smaller extent, lean towards potentially the first rate hike in 2022. In addition, the United States September consumer price index and PPI are due over the course of this week alongside retail sales data.