NO major economic data is expected in this holiday-shortened week ahead.
The Statistics Department is scheduled to release the monthly rubber statistics for July 2021 tomorrow.
In June 2021, natural rubber production increased 37.8% to 38,807 tonnes as compared to 28,164 tonnes in May 2021.
Exports of Malaysia’s natural rubber amounted to 48,589 tonnes in June 2021, up 1% against 48,111 tonnes in May 2021.
Gloves were the main exports of rubber-based products with a value of RM6.4bil in June 2021, up 16.6% as compared to the RM5.5bil registered in May 2021.
Meanwhile, Bursa Malaysia and its subsidiaries will be closed on Thursday in conjunction with Malaysia Day.
China data dump
A slew of data, including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment for August 2021, will be released midweek.
China’s August home prices will also be released on Sept 15.
Bloomberg estimates industrial production in August to grow 5.8% y-o-y and retail sales to expand 7% y-o-y. ING’s chief economist for Greater China Iris Pang expects slower growth in retail sales as government policies, such as the closure of education centres and limiting online gaming, hitting the job market.
Meanwhile, ING said industrial production is expected to slow only marginally due to isolated Covid-related closures. The growth of fixed asset investments is predicted to pick up, bolstered by outlays in transport and infrastructure.
SINGAPORE will release its August 2021 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) data on Friday.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research estimates a growth of 2.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) on a seasonally adjusted basis and 8.5% year-on-year (y-o-y).
ING forecasts NODX to grow 9.2% y-o-y and 2.8% m-o-m. Singapore’s NODX grew 12.7% y-o-y in July 2021. On a seasonally-adjusted m-o-m basis, NODX declined 0.9% in July.
US inflation, FOMC blackout
THE United States August consumer price index (CPI), industrial production and retail sales data are due this week. Refinitiv consensus currently points to an August CPI of 0.4% m-o-m.
Separately, US industrial production growth likely slowed in August. According to the IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI, material and labour shortages curbed output growth.
IHS Markit said retail sales, meanwhile, are expected to remain in m-o-m contraction according to consensus, linked in part to the spread of the Delta variant.
ING predicts retail sales to fall 1.5% m-o-m given that the volume of auto sales plunged 11.5%. It said headline CPI is likely to remain close to 5.5% y-o-y this week with core inflation remaining at 4.3%.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve begins its blackout period from Sept 11 to 23 ahead of the Sept 21 to 22 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.