StanChart lowers Vietnam forecast


Standard Chartered’s economists anticipate domestically oriented sectors such as retail are likely to be the hardest-hit if the current Covid-19 wave persists. The focus now is on whether the impact on the industrial sector will be temporary or more long-lasting.

HANOI: Standard Chartered has lowered its growth forecast for Vietnam for 2021 from 6.7% to 6.5%.

The bank maintains its 7.3% growth forecast for 2022, and continues to expect a post-Covid-19 economic acceleration.

“We believe Vietnam is moving towards its goal of becoming a regional supply-chain hub, a modern industrial economy and a high-income country in the future,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered.

“Vietnam managed the Covid-19 situation well in 2020, further enhancing its appeal to foreign investors. The country had already benefited from the ongoing supply-chain shift in recent years.

In the near term, the country’s pandemic management will be crucial to the outlook,” he went on.

Standard Chartered’s economists anticipate domestically oriented sectors such as retail are likely to be the hardest-hit if the current Covid-19 wave persists. The focus now is on whether the impact on the industrial sector will be temporary or more long-lasting.

While the global pandemic has weighed on Vietnam’s economy via reduced tourism, supply-chain disruptions and weaker overseas demand, external indicators are showing a strong recovery.

Exports in the first half of the year rose 28.4% year-on-year and imports rose 36.1%.

According to the UK-based bank, rising inflation is reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts. The bank does not expect rate hikes despite improving economic and credit growth from the last quarter of 2020. It also expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to keep its refinancing rate at 4% through to the end of 2023 to support credit growth.

The possibility of a rate hike may gradually emerge if inflation and growth accelerate faster than expected. — Vietnam News/ANN

Earlier, on Tuesday, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also lowered its forecast for Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 to 5.8% from its previous prediction of 6.7% in April, as the fourth wave of Covid-19 infections hampers the country’s recovery.

Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated from 1.8% in the first half of 2020 to 5.6% in the same period this year as the global recovery from the pandemic boosted exports, the bank said.

However, the ongoing wave of Covid-19 infections has led to disruptions in supply chains and prolonged social distancing measures in many provinces and cities whose growth rates are high. These have severely affected the circulation of goods and greatly limited economic activity in 2021. — Vietnam News/ANN

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