The Week Ahead - Trade focus, GDP report, Singapore IPI, China data

A handful of corporate earnings are expected this week including MR DIY Group (M) Bhd, Bursa Malaysia Bhd, Westports Holdings Bhd and Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust.

Trade focus

THE release of the external trade statistics for March 2021 on Wednesday will be closely watched for signs of the country’s improving economy.

The Statistics Department will also be releasing the producer price index (PPI) on that day.

Economists expect exports to grow 21% in March while trade surplus is expected to widen to RM18.5bil.

In February, exports expanded 17.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM87.57bil, while imports during the month grew 12.7% y-o-y to RM69.7bil.

The country’s PPI local production increased 2.7% in February 2021, compared with -0.1% in January 2021.

A handful of corporate earnings are expected this week including MR DIY Group (M) Bhd, Bursa Malaysia Bhd, Westports Holdings Bhd and Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust.

Bursa Malaysia will be closed on Thursday in conjunction with Nuzul Al-Quran public holiday.

GDP reports

SOUTH Korea and Taiwan are due to release their gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the first quarter (Q1) this week.

ING forecast for Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth is 5.5% y-o-y, up from 5.1% y-o-y in Q4’20.

It expects a 1% y-o-y GDP growth in South Korea after a contraction in the preceding three quarters.

The research house said Taiwan was a notable exception to an unprecedented economic slump during the Covid-19 crisis as GDP growth remained positive throughout 2020.

South Korea Posco steel factory - filepic

While this had the island economy off to a strong start in 2021, disproportionate benefits of global semiconductor shortages kept exports and GDP growth accelerating.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research estimates Taiwan’s GDP to expand 5.7% y-o-y while South Korea’s GDP to grow 1.2% y-o-y.

Singapore industrial production

INDUSTRIAL production (IP) numbers for March and unemployment rate are due in Singapore this week.

UOB expects Singapore’s IP to contract 0.5% month-on-month, but expand 2.2% y-o-y.ING noted that the advance estimate of Singapore’s first quarter GDP eked out a 0.2% y-o-y growth.

So, March IP data will signal the direction of revision to the initial estimate, which will most likely be upward given the persistent strong non-oil domestic exports in March, it said.

China manufacturing data

CHINA’S official April manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released on Friday. Its industrial profits data for March are due tomorrow.

Bloomberg estimates April manufacturing PMI to edge down to 51.6 while non-manufacturing PMI at 56.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below reflects contraction.

The PMI for China’s manufacturing sector came in at 51.9 in March and the non-manufacturing sector came in at 56.3 in March.