CIMB Research cautious of TPP impact on Malaysia pharma sector prospects

CIMB Research said the Tran-Pacific Partnership Agreement may take a few years to come into effect and its impact on the earnings of local drug makers may only be felt in the longer term.

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research believes the Tran-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TTP) could alter the Malaysian pharmaceutical sector’s long-term prospects.

It said on Friday while the TPP should reduce or remove the barriers of exporting drugs to other TPP member countries, most local pharmaceutical companies focus mainly on the domestic market. 

“Those with the ambition to expand beyond Malaysia, such as Hovid and Pharmaniaga, are eyeing the emerging markets like Nigeria, the Philippines, and Indonesia which are not involved in the TPP,” it said.

CIMB Research said the Malaysian government stood firm that TPP should not hinder the public’s accessibility to affordable drugs. However, until there is more clarify with the official release of its text, TPP poses risks to all drug makers based in Malaysia.

The Malaysian Medical Association believes the TPP agreement would extend the exclusivity period of new drugs, the period where the drug originators have exclusive marketing rights. 

Currently, generic drug makers rely on new product launches to offset the declining profit margin of older generic drugs. 

A longer exclusivity period means that generic drug makers may have to hold back their product launches and suffer an overall decline in profit margins.

“We believe the TPP will subject government procurement and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to greater competition as the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) was not able to totally carve out these areas from the TPP. 

“The government is the key customer of state-owned drug makers such as Pharmaniaga and CCM Duopharma. Their manufacturing profit margins are higher than those of their peers and their earnings are at risk should competition intensify,” it said.

CIMB Research said the TPP may take a few years to come into effect and its impact on the earnings of local drug makers may only be felt in the longer term. 

“As such, we keep our earnings forecasts and target prices for Hovid and Pharmaniaga. Nonetheless, TPP still possesses a risk to the sector’s valuation as it could alter the sector’s long-term prospects. We may review our valuation basis for these stocks when we gather more details about the pact,” it said.