THE Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) crude palm oil futures prices extended on its negative wave and trended lower for most of the sessions last week as bears dominated trading.
Prices fell on weaker sentiment linked to expectations of a lower export figure for this month and generally quiet and softer cash market. Short-covering linked to profit-taking was evident throughout the sessions and helped lift the market from its intra-week lows.
The benchmark third-month July 2003 futures prices declined from an intra-week high of RM1,421 to RM1,357 and closed the week sharply lower at RM1,374, off RM53 per tonne from previously.
Chart-wise, the crude palm oil futures closed the week slightly positive and are expected to trend sideways in band-trading this week. Friday’s close above its downtrend resistance line at the RM1,365 level indicates that the market may have found a temporary bottom.
Based on the daily bar-chart, the July futures have an immediate resistance at the RM1,380-RM1,385 level. A successful push above this trading hurdle could generate fresh bullish momentum and set the stage for a mild technical rebound, possibly sending the market higher for a test of its minor chart-resistance at the RM 1,400-RM1,420 level in the near term.
Immediate support is seen this week at the RM1,355-RM1,365 level. Breaching of this immediate chart-support would signal the continuation of the negative trend and force the market to look for a fresh base below the RM1,350 level.
The daily technical indicators ended the week mixed and called for more band trading with an upward bias this week.
The daily stochastics ended the week in the oversold zones after having triggered the buy-signal on April 17. The oscillator per cent K and D closed the week sharply lower at 16.23% and 13.06% respectively. Analysis of the daily stochastics indicates that the market has a strong chance for an upward correction this week.
The 3-day and 7-days exponentially smoothed moving-average price-line (ESA-line) retained its signal of April 8 and failed to give the cycle-reversal signal during Friday’s close. The 3-day and 7-day ESA-lines ended the week lower at 1,377 and 1,394 points respectively. A successful crossover this week would confirm that a bullish wave has started.
The daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) (not shown in the chart) remained negative during Friday’s close and signalled that the market is not out of its downward cycle. The daily MACD closed the week below the trigger-line and settled the week lower at minus 30.72 and minus 28.08 points respectively.
The daily momentum index (M.I) remained below 100-point mark and closed the week lower at 92.84 points. Based on the daily MI, the immediate momentum of the market is neutral-to-slightly negative.
Soyoil futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose marginally in early trading, but the move was short-lived as selling pressure mounted and force prices lower before recovering slightly to close Thursday with small gains.
United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) weekly soybean export sales data aided sentiment last week. USDA estimated the US soybean old crop and new crop sales at 456,500 tonnes, sharply higher than earlier estimates for 150,000 to 350,000 tonnes.
The July 2003 soyoil futures prices ranged from a weekly low of 21.81 US cents to 22.27 cents and closed Thursday fractionally higher at 22.13 cents, up 0.04 cent per lb. from previously.
Chart-wise, the July soyoil futures prices ended the week neutral and are expected to stay in consolidation this week.
Chart-support for this week stands at the 22.00-21.80 cents per lb. level. Breaking of this immediate chart-support would turn the immediate term chart-picture negative and pressure prices lower to the 21.50 cents per lb level. Chart-resistance for this week is seen at the 22.20-22.30 US cent levels. A minor chart-hurdle is peg at the 22.40-22.50 cent level.
The daily technical indicators closed the week mixed and indicated that the upward momentum could carry over into this week’s trading.
The daily stochastic triggered the buy-signal on April 17 and called for more upside trading this week. The daily oscillator per cent K closed above the oscillator per cent D and ended the week lower at 31.43% and 28.14% respectively. Based on the daily stochastics reading, the immediate term market could move into an upward technical correction.
The daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) turned negative last week and ended Thursday slightly bearish. The daily MACD ended below the trigger-line and closed higher in the positive zones at 0.31 and 0.33 of a point respectively.
The 3-day and 7-day exponentially smoothed moving-average price lines ended Thursday bullish and indicated that the bearish cycle had ended. The 3-day and 7-day ESA-lines settled the week lower at 22.09 and 22.05 respectively.
The daily momentum index (MI) remained above the 100-point mark and settled higher in the positive territory at 104.04 points. Analysis of the daily MI shows that the market’s immediate momentum is constructive.
Cocoa futures prices on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) in New York fell in early trading and managed to rebound significantly after a late round of short-covering ahead of the three-day Easter weekend holidays.
The July 2003 cocoa prices made a 4-1/2 month low on Tuesday at US$1,800 a tonne and edged higher to close Thursday at US$1,855 a tonne, up US$15 a tonne from a week ago.
Chart-wise, the July 2003 cocoa futures prices ended the week slightly positive and are expected to continue on sideways range trading this week.
Chart-support for this week is seen at the US$1,800- US$1,820 level, and breaching of this immediate chart-support could pressure the market lower and trade around the US$1,750 level. Chart-resistance for this week stands at the US$1,870- US$1,890 level.
The daily technical indicators ended the week slightly positive and indicated further range-trading this week.
The daily stochastics triggered the buy-signal on April 16 and closed Thursday bullish. The daily oscillator per cent K ended above the oscillator per cent D and closed lower at 23.70 and 14.96 % respectively. Analysis of this oscillator shows that the market could trend higher in a mild upward correction this week.
The 3-day and 7-day exponentially smoothed average price-line (ESA-line) remained bearish during Thursday’s close and signalled that the market is still in a bearish cycle. The 3-day and 7-day ESA-lines closed the week lower at 1,853 and 1,879 respectively.
The daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) turned bearish during Thursday’s close and indicated that the downward pressure could continue this week. The daily MACD and trigger-line settled the week lower in negative zones at minus 42.41 and minus 36.17 points respectively.
The daily momentum index (MI) slipped below the 100-point mark and ended Thursday lower at 94.64 points. Analysis of the daily MI indicates that the immediate momentum of the market is negative.
Tin prices on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) rebounded in a mild rally on fresh buying interests and managed to close the week with moderate gains. European and Japanese parties bid up the market in early trading and kept prices at their intra-week’s highs toward Friday’s close.
The cash tin prices ended the week higher at US$4,620 per tonne, up US$120 per tonne from previously. Trades for the week fluctuated from US$4,620 to US$4,560 per tonne.
Total volume for the week increased to 227 tonnes from 179 tonnes a week ago.
Chart-wise, the cash tin prices ended the week slightly positive and are likely to continue with its bullish momentum this week. Chart-support for this week is adjusted higher to the US$4,550- US$4,580 per tonne level. Chart-resistance for this week is seen at the US$4,650- US$4,700 level.
The weekly technical indicators closed the week mostly positive and called for further upside trading this week.
The weekly stochastics triggered the buy-signal during Friday’s close and signalled that an upward cycle has started. The weekly oscillator per cent K and D ended higher at 22.31% and 16.78%.
The weekly moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) turned bullish during Friday’s close indicating further advances this week. The MACD and the trigger-line closed the week higher in positive territory at 0.09 and 0.10 of a point respectively.
The 3-week and 7-week exponentially smoothed average price-lines (ESA-lines) experienced a bullish cross-over during Friday’s close and confirmed that a bullish wave had started. The 3-week and 7-week ESA-lines finished higher at 4,573 and 4,569 respectively.
The weekly momentum index remained above the 100-point mark and settled higher at 102.09 points. Analysis of the weekly MI indicates that the market’s immediate momentum is positive.