SOUTH-EAST ASIA (Bernama): Longstanding disputes, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and negotiation fatigue could derail efforts by Asean and China to conclude negotiations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) by end-2026, an analyst said.
Despite these challenges, maritime analyst and scholar Nazery Khalid expressed cautious optimism that the long-awaited agreement could still be finalised by year-end, citing both sides’ commitment to concluding negotiations.
"Despite pronouncements by Asean and China that they are committed to conclude the COC and progress is being made towards reaching an agreement, I am cautiously optimistic that the code will be finalised by year-end,” he told Bernama.
Asean and China have intensified negotiations this year, holding monthly meetings aimed at resolving outstanding issues, including the COC’s legal status, geographical scope, and its relationship with the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).
However, Nazery cautioned that changing geopolitical and geostrategic developments had altered the negotiating landscape, weakened the influence of the rules-based order and multilateral platforms, and hardened the positions of certain claimant states.
He said the involvement of external powers had further heightened tensions in the disputed waters.
Nazery also warned that the prolonged negotiations, which had carried on for more than two decades since the adoption of the DOC in 2002, could lead to negotiation fatigue among claimant states.
"They belabor through the same points of contentions over and over again without making much meaningful progress to clear the major areas of disputes,” he said.
He said changes in governments and negotiators, who might hold different perspectives from their predecessors, could further undermine momentum in the negotiations.
Among the major sticking points, Nazery identified disagreements over which areas of the South China Sea were disputed, whether competing maritime claims complied with international law, and how violations of the COC should be addressed.
Another contentious issue was whether the code should incorporate a dispute settlement mechanism rather than merely focus on preventing disputes.
"Unless all parties come on board on these matters and are satisfied that their interests will be safeguarded and not compromised, it is hard to foresee the COC being concluded anytime soon,” he said.
Against this backdrop, Nazery said Malaysia, as the ASEAN-China Country Coordinator, was well placed to help bridge differences and maintain momentum in the COC negotiations.
He said Malaysia could leverage its non-aligned stance and close trade ties with China to act as a "voice of reason and influence” to encourage both sides to continue negotiations despite their differences.
Malaysia could also encourage claimant states to align their maritime claims with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), he added.
Nazery also warned that further delays in concluding the COC could increase the risk of "hostilities flaring up into full blown confrontation” among claimant states.
He cautioned that if external powers were drawn into the dispute, Asean could "lose its centrality and relevance in shaping the regional maritime security architecture.”
The Philippines, as Asean Chair for 2026, will host the 49th Asean Summit and Related Summits in Manila.
The theme for this summit is "Navigating Our Future, Together” and the conclusion of COC negotiations will be among the key priorities.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will lead Malaysia’s delegation to the meetings. -- BERNAMA
