The world’s top robusta grower’s coffee output is likely to remain steady in the current 2026/27 season as stronger production from younger, replanted trees offsets losses caused by unfavourable weather earlier in 2026, industry participants said.
The relief for global markets could be relatively short-lived, however, as 2026’s El Nino weather pattern, which some meteorologists say is the strongest on record, is expected to heavily impact next season’s crop.
Vietnam produces about 40% of the world’s robusta coffee beans, typically used in instant coffee blends.
Weather conditions have varied in 2026 across Vietnam’s main coffee-growing region, the Central Highlands, with weaker yields in some areas offset by stronger production elsewhere.
“Output this crop season will broadly be in line with the previous crop,” said Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, a coffee industry association in Vietnam’s coffee-growing heartland.
“Newer trees in some growing areas are producing higher yields and helping offset losses,” he added.
A coffee trader based in Dak Lak province also estimated output would be broadly unchanged, saying excessive rain and pest outbreaks earlier in 2026 had hurt crops in some areas, but had not affected the Central Highlands uniformly.
The assessment is somewhat more cautious than a May forecast by the US Department of Agriculture, which sees Vietnam’s 2026/27 coffee output up 2.5% from the previous season at 32.5 million 60kg bags, including a 3% increase in robusta output to 31.4 million bags.
However, attention is turning to the 2027/28 crop, with industry participants growing increasingly concerned due to El Nino, but cautioning it is too early to quantify the impact.
On Oct 9, Japanese meteorologists said the change in water temperatures was the highest since records began in 1949.
“El Nino is expected to be very severe and could hit output in the 2027/28 crop,” Minh said.
“Irrigation water supplies are expected to fall short.”
Farmers in coffee-growing areas expressed similar concerns.
“I experienced the same thing a decade ago, when El Nino hurt both output and prices,” said Tran Thi Mai, a farmer in the Central Highlands’ Gia Lai province with a 2ha plantation.
“Water shortages and drought conditions could start affecting irrigation as early as February. Next crop output will very likely be smaller,” she added. — Reuters
