BANGKOK: Bangkok’s condominium market faces mounting pressure from weaker Thai and foreign purchasing power, flooding, and a large unsold inventory, despite more new launches in the first nine months of 2026.
Surachet Kongcheep, Head of Research & Consulting at Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, said the market faced a more complicated challenge in the third quarter than simply competing on location and price.
Economic weakness has weighed on domestic purchasing power, while demand from foreign buyers, particularly Chinese customers, has yet to recover. Heavy rain and flooding have added another layer of uncertainty.
The pressure prompted some developers to postpone new project launches planned for late September while they assessed market conditions.
Some projects instead opted for soft launches, allowing selected customers to make early reservations before a formal launch in the fourth quarter to test demand.
Surachet said developers were becoming increasingly cautious, with decisions on new projects depending not only on land availability and business plans but also on purchasing power, environmental risks and the likelihood of converting interest into completed sales.
Bangkok recorded 4,876 newly launched condominium units in the third quarter, more than double the second-quarter level.
This brought total launches during the first nine months of 2026 to 14,377 units, up 6% from the same period last year.
Several more projects are scheduled for the fourth quarter, with full-year launches expected at around 16,000 to 17,000 units.
Surachet cautioned that rising launch numbers did not mean the market had returned to full strength.
The bigger issue is whether developers can turn new supply into sales and complete ownership transfers while buyers remain cautious about spending.
New launches are therefore only the beginning, he said. Developers need to generate revenue without allowing unsold inventory to build further.
Bangkok’s expanding urban rail network remains a key factor in where developers build condominium projects.
Most developers continue to favour locations along lines already in operation, adjusting project formats and prices according to distance from stations and the central business district.
Outer Bangkok has played an important role in accommodating new projects because prices are more accessible and the potential customer base is wider than in the city centre.
However, weaker purchasing power is changing investment strategies.
Developers are focusing more heavily on selling completed units ready for transfer or projects scheduled for completion this year.
New launches continue, but developers increasingly choose smaller projects with fewer units or, in some cases, complete construction before putting units on the market.
Locations with established demand and existing transport links are also attracting more interest than areas dependent on rail projects that have yet to be completed.
The biggest challenge is the volume of condominium inventory already on the market.
Bangkok has more than 65,300 unsold units worth about THB370 billion, according to the market data.
Of these, around 25,700 units are complete and ready for ownership transfer, representing about 40% of the remaining stock.
At the current pace, the inventory could take two to three years to clear if no new projects were launched.
For developers, prolonged inventory creates financial costs, maintenance expenses and delays in recognising revenue.
Condos priced below THB3 million, or no more than THB100,000 per square metre, account for about 55% of remaining stock.
When units priced between THB100,001 and THB150,000 per square metre are included, the proportion rises to about 76%.
These price brackets have accumulated the most inventory partly because developers launched many projects in these segments in previous years.
“The challenge now is not simply to build new projects, but to turn existing stock into ownership transfers while balancing current asset sales with future investment,” Surachet said.
Developers continue to focus on condominiums priced at no more than THB150,000 per square metre because the segment reaches a broader customer base than the luxury market.
Potential buyers include both Thais and foreigners.
However, mortgage access remains a major obstacle for some domestic buyers, particularly in lower-priced projects.
Surachet said one of the market’s biggest problems was the gap between reservations and completed ownership transfers.
A customer may decide to buy and pay a reservation fee, but the transaction cannot be completed if the buyer cannot secure a sufficient mortgage.
Some developers of units priced below THB100,000 per square metre have responded by allowing customers to rent first and seek financing to buy later when they are financially ready.
Developers are also using discounts and promotional campaigns to accelerate sales of completed units.
These measures are not available at every project, but they reflect the greater flexibility developers need in the current market to turn bookings into completed transfers.
Weak Chinese purchasing power has added to pressure on Bangkok’s property market over the past one to two years.
The report cited safety concerns affecting Thailand’s image as one factor behind weaker demand.
Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand fell 33.6% in 2025, while condominium ownership transfers to Chinese buyers declined 13% in the same year.
Chinese purchases remained subdued during the first half of 2026.
At the same time, closer scrutiny of documents, sources of funds and corporate ownership structures involving foreign nationals has made some transactions more difficult.
The tighter checks have affected buyers who previously used income or funds generated through businesses in other countries to purchase Thai property.
The slowdown has affected both condominiums and higher-priced houses, leaving developers more dependent on domestic buyers at a time when household incomes and access to credit remain constrained.
Flooding has added uncertainty to the market, with some developers postponing launches due to recent conditions.
However, Surachet said the situation could also prompt some buyers to consider condominiums as an alternative to low-rise housing because upper-floor units face less direct risk of flood damage.
That does not mean condominium residents are insulated from flooding.
Access roads, transport, utilities and common areas can all be disrupted even when individual units remain dry.
Projects near operating rail stations and surrounded by established communities and everyday facilities could therefore become more attractive if they let residents maintain daily routines during unexpected disruptions.
For developers, the combination of flooding, weak purchasing power and a THB370-billion inventory means the immediate priority is increasingly shifting from expanding supply towards reducing existing stock and ensuring that sales can be converted into completed ownership transfers. - Bangkok Post/ANN
