JAKARTA: The latest cabinet reshuffle has placed ties between President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo under renewed scrutiny, with analysts noting that the President is trying to prevent potential political rivals from building influence outside the government.
Prabowo announced the shake-up last Thursday and Friday in major changes that strengthened representation for several pro-government parties and brought more than two dozen figures from diverse backgrounds into the executive orbit through the Presidential Advisory Board (Wantimpres) weeks before his administration reaches its two-year mark.
The reshuffle also notably repositioned several names associated with his key political backer, Jokowi.
Among them were police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, who was reassigned to presidential chief of staff, and coordinating human development minister Pratikno, who was appointed to a new post as Wantimpres chairman.
Muhammad Qodari, another prominent ally of Jokowi with a background in political polling, was also reassigned from his position as head of the Government Communications Agency (Bakom) to Wantimpres secretary.
Analyst Yoes Kenawas from pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) said the changes suggested Prabowo was strengthening his grip on the administration while preventing potential political rivals from building influence.
“This was not a complete purge of Jokowi’s people. Rather, it marks the beginning of a transition, with Prabowo gradually building his own team and placing people he trusts in more key positions, while keeping figures associated with Jokowi within his political orbit,” Yoes said on Saturday.
“Prabowo certainly does not want to create an opposition too early. If Jokowi were suddenly pushed aside and took on the role of opposition, that would become a dangerous threat,” he said.
“So this is about keeping potential rivals within the reach of Prabowo’s camp to prevent them from consolidating outside the government.”
Political analyst Arif Susanto from Exposit Strategic saw the cabinet reshuffle as Prabowo’s attempt to manage his complicated relationship with Jokowi and his eldest son, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, amid potential political turbulence that could emerge from inside and outside his administration.
He pointed to the potential political fallout surrounding an upcoming Constitutional Court ruling on a petition challenging Gibran’s eligibility and educational qualifications when he ran for office in 2024.
“The case cannot simply be isolated as Gibran’s problem because it could have serious implications for Prabowo if his political opponents use it as a tool to threaten him,” Arif said.
“If the legal decision has consequences for impeachment, I don’t think Prabowo is certain that he will be insulated from the fallout.”
Before being appointed as the new chair of the government communications agency on Friday, activist Syahganda Nainggolan last month made a strong criticism against Gibran, saying his 2024 vice presidential bid represented a moral and ethical problem for the country.
Gibran’s candidacy was enabled by a controversial Constitutional Court ruling overseen by his uncle, then chief justice Anwar Usman, who now becomes one of the new presidential advisors.
State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi did not respond to requests for comment, while Jokowi said last week that the cabinet changes were Prabowo’s prerogative as president.
Jokowi has also defended his son’s educational qualifications, saying Gibran had been cleared to run for vice president in 2024 by the election body.
The reshuffle also came at a time when Jokowi is becoming increasingly active in politics, from launching a nationwide tour and stepping up communications with his grassroots supporter groups to officially joining the political stage as a new member of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), a small party led by his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep.
Prabowo himself has appeared to intensify his communication with political forces outside Jokowi, including last week when the President paid a visit to Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the quasi-opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), a former political vehicle of Jokowi.
Whether Prabowo and Jokowi will eventually go their separate ways or not remains to be seen, as the current constellation is still very much fluid.
Experts say many factors, including the ongoing debate in the government-dominated legislature over election rules, may alter political calculations and reshape the alliances ahead of the 2029 elections. - Jakarta Post/ANN
