MANILA: Sara Duterte, the impeached vice president of the Philippines, is facing an increasing risk of conviction and a lifetime ban on politics, as allies of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr weigh invalidating key votes of support in her Senate trial.
The 24-member Senate, where Duterte is on trial, is expected to debate Wednesday (Sept 23) on whether the votes of several absent senators should even be counted.
Two Duterte-aligned senators, Rodante Marcoleta and Jinggoy Estrada, have both been arrested on corruption charges. Another staunch Senate ally, Ronald dela Rosa, is in hiding to avoid an international arrest warrant. And Senator Loren Legarda, meanwhile, is on extended medical leave while she faces a probe over energy contracts. All have denied wrongdoing.
The decision on whether to lower the bar to convict Duterte would be a pivotal moment in the trial, which has already been underway for 10 weeks and could stretch until December. She’s accused of threatening to kill Marcos and his wife, misusing public funds and amassing unexplained wealth. She denies the allegations.
The senator-judges are expected to hear arguments from the defence and prosecution on whether the constitutional requirement for a two-thirds vote to convict an impeached official covers all members, or only those present.
While it’s unclear how all senators would be expected to vote on the charges, the 16 count threshold for conviction had been seen as bar too high for prosecutors to clear. But that math moves against her if they’re able to remove several reliable pro-Duterte senators.
"Marcos’ government is pushing the envelope with the cases against the minority senators to ensure that he wins this existential battle with Duterte,” said Ronald Llamas, who served as political affairs adviser during the presidency of Benigno Aquino III. A loss for Duterte on this point increases the chances of her conviction, he said.
Senate Minority Leader Alan Cayetano, who’s also under scrutiny for past government projects, has called out the Marcos administration for pursuing "selective justice.” His office has responded that the cases against senators are based on evidence and they have the opportunity to challenge the charges in courts.
The developments come amid a deepening power struggle ahead of the 2028 presidential election, where Duterte is an early favourite. While Marcos is ineligible for re-election because of term limits, the concern in his camp is that Duterte would turn the powers of the state against him and his allies if she wins.
The rift has also complicated efforts to address the nation’s slowing economic growth and elevated inflation.
At least three more Duterte-aligned senators have legal troubles hanging over them. Senator Mark Villar and his sister Camille Villar are facing graft charges related to their company’s water contracts. Senator Robin Padilla has been summoned to answer an obstruction of justice complaint for allegedly helping Dela Rosa escape in May.
During the impeachment trial, prosecutors have repeatedly played a 2024 video of a furious Duterte saying that she feared for her life and had made arrangements for the killing of Marcos, his wife and cousin in the event she dies.
Witnesses have also testified that Duterte’s aides have made unusually large cash withdrawals, of about US$2 million each loaded into gym bags. They have also alleged the vice president of using fictitious names to receive money intended for surveillance operations and then spent those funds on Christmas parties.
Duterte’s lawyers have countered that she has been subjected to threats and harassment since her estrangement from Marcos, and that there was no irregularity on how the funds were spent. The vice president has pledged to be "unbowed” by the impeachment trial, which she described as a "bloodbath and bludgeoning.”
The defence team said it may appeal the Senate vote-eligibility issue if it loses.
"If we see that our client’s rights are affected, we don’t deny that there’s a possibility that we will elevate this to the Supreme Court,” Duterte’s lawyer Michael Poa said last week. - Bloomberg
