BANGKOK: Thailand failed to alter Myanmar’s position amid Asean demands despite bilateral gains, according to political experts.
Myanmar’s coup leader-turned-civilian president, Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Thailand at the Thailand-Myanmar business summit in August was closely monitored for the outcomes of the talks and Thailand’s position between Myanmar and Asean.
Thailand and Myanmar share a more than 2,400-kilometre border, with longstanding ties in trade, security and migration. Since the 2021 coup, those ties have also been complicated by fighting, refugee flows, disrupted border trade and transboundary pollution.
Beyond that, one of the key objectives of the ex-junta’s visit during August 6-7 is to urge a recalibration with Asean, but Dr Naruemon Thabchumpon, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Political Science of Chulalongkorn University, said that the visit appears to have merely produced movement on Myanmar's relationship with Asean, analysts say.
“The Thai government thinks that they should invite Asean to re-engage with Myanmar by inviting Myanmar and hoping that after re-engaging, Myanmar may at least soften its stance or change a certain policy. But I think the rejection of Myanmar has already proved that, quote-unquote, the word 're-calibrating' doesn't work quite as they expect,” Dr Naruemon said.
Shortly after the visit, Myanmar’s ex-coup government rejected the renewed call from 11 Asean nations for the unconditional release of detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, an 81-year-old civilian-elected leader who has been detained. Her government was seized by ex-coup leader Min Aung Hlaing back in 2021.
The Asean Chair also called for greater access for the bloc's special envoy, who is tasked with facilitating dialogue among the parties to Myanmar's conflict.
The release of Suu Kyi is not one of the five specific points of Asean's Five-Point Consensus, but it has become part of Asean's broader efforts to promote political dialogue and reconciliation in Myanmar.
Meanwhile, Supalak Ganjanakhundee, an analyst of the Institute for Strategic Policy, sees that the key for Myanmar to re-engage with Asean remains a long way to go. Before the visit to Thailand, President Min Aung Hlaing had already travelled to China, India and Laos.
He sees Myanmar dealing with the issues at hand by strengthening bilateral ties with regional powers, particularly China and India, in effect, relying less on Asean, adding that Myanmar’s military-dominated parliament has also rejected Asean’s Five-Point Consensus, while its government has also pushed back against the role of Asean’s special envoy.
For Supalak, that pattern points to an immediate neighbouring strategy, bypassing commitment to Asean.
“Coincidentally, the two major countries that share borders with Myanmar are India and China. They are regional powerhouses, and China, of course, is already a global superpower. So, if Min Aung Hlaing can engage with them and receive a warm welcome when he visits, that means Asean is not really that important.”
“I think this is something Asean and Thailand need to reconsider, plan for, and find a new way of dealing with Myanmar. In the end, Thailand has received very little substance in return,” opined Supalak opined.
Yet for Thailand, engagement with Myanmar is not simply a diplomatic choice.
After Min Aung Hlaing’s visit, Thailand’s Energy Minister Akanat Promphan recently held talks with Myanmar’s Minister of Electricity and Energy, Ko Ko Lwin, alongside representatives from relevant agencies.
The discussions focused on strengthening bilateral energy cooperation, particularly in natural gas exploration and production, gas trading and electricity-grid connectivity.
According to the government spokesperson, Thailand has relied on Myanmar as a key source of natural gas from the Yadana and Zawtika fields for almost 40 years, accounting for 15%-20% of the country’s demand.
The gas supplies play an important role in the country’s electricity generation, industrial operations and wider economic activity, underscoring the importance of continued energy cooperation between the two countries.
Dr Naruemon agreed that one of the priorities that the Thai government may need to cooperate with the Myanmar government on is energy security. She added that the concession contract on the Yadana and Yetagun gas fields in Myanmar is going to end soon.
She also said that there are issues that the two governments need to talk about, which is migrant workers and refugees.
Over 4.1 million Myanmar nationals are living in Thailand, including 2.3 million registered migrant workers, according to the IOM, or International Organization for Migration, in Thailand.
She stressed that, fairly, the Thai government feels it must speak directly to Myanmar. It has become increasingly difficult for the Thai government to manage unilaterally without bilateral talks. However, the government should play both hands.
“When Thailand invites him under a soft approach, he interprets that as weakness, making his regime feel stronger. Thailand needs to maintain international standards and back Asean solidarity, especially with the Philippines chairing Asean right now. We must demonstrate unity rather than appearing divided,” she noted.
Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has faced growing economic hardship, while control over parts of the country has become increasingly fragmented among competing armed groups.
Supalak said that the conflict has also disrupted major border trade routes, with the consequences spilling over into Thailand.
For Thai businesses, that means higher costs and greater uncertainty. The issues remain as traders using some routes may have to pay checkpoint and protection fees to several armed groups before their goods reach their destination.
“For a single container passing through Mae Sot, traders can end up paying tens of thousands of baht in fees. With several checkpoints along the route, they have to make payments to different groups, driving up the cost of trade. This is one of the problems caused by the current situation,” Suplak said.
Thailand and Myanmar have agreed to cooperate on transboundary river pollution, aiming to create a mechanism to monitor water quality, exchange data and technical information, and coordinate measures to prevent and address pollution after the rivers in northern Thailand have been contaminated with heavy metals and arsenic from mining in Myanmar’s Shan State.
Environmental group representative and human-rights activist Sor. Rattanamanee Polkla, Executive Coordinator, Community Resource Centre Foundation (CRC) argues that the agreement focuses mainly on joint water inspections and does not go far enough to address the root causes of the pollution, mining regulations, restore damaged rivers, or protect affected communities.
“The ToR states that the agreement concerns cooperation on water testing. But it should actually be an agreement on working together to solve the problem,” the activist said.
“Simply testing the water quality does not solve anything. They need to examine the mining process itself, because that is what is causing the pollution.”
Thailand's approach has also drawn criticism from international observers.
In a strongly worded statement, the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, whose founding members include former Thai foreign minister Kasit Piromya and former UN experts, criticised Bangkok's engagement with Min Aung Hlaing.
The group argued that Thailand had failed to secure commitments from Myanmar on reducing violence, releasing political prisoners and allowing greater humanitarian access.
Meanwhile, Thailand says its engagement with Min Aung Hlaing is aimed at maintaining channels for dialogue and encouraging Myanmar's return to greater engagement with Asean, rather than legitimising or endorsing any particular political side.
For now, Thailand's strategy has produced some practical areas of cooperation, particularly on energy, border issues and environmental concerns.
But on the broader question of bringing Myanmar closer to Asean, the results are less clear. That could become an even more important issue in 2028, when Thailand is scheduled to chair Asean.
As Asean chair, Thailand will have to balance its national interests and its direct relationship with Myanmar with the bloc's collective position on the crisis. - The Nation/ANN
