NEW DELHI: When Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in New Delhi this weekend for his first post-Covid visit to India, he faces the task of managing a delicate detente with his neighbor and rival.
Xi will visit India Sept 12-13 to attend the BRICS summit, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. He will likely meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines.
The visit marks Xi’s first return to India since 2019, when the two leaders met in Chennai for the second in a series of unofficial dialogues before ties broke down over border confrontations that turned deadly the following year.
For Xi to visit now, overcoming a growing preference to host leaders at home, underscores both the significance of BRICS to Beijing and the value China places on keeping ties on track with the world’s most populous country.
"The recent easing of tensions between India and China should be seen as pragmatic risk management rather than a more strategic reset,” said Dylan Loh, associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
"Both sides recognize that a volatile border serves neither of their long-term economic priorities but deep strategic mistrust remains that will not go away anytime soon.”
When Xi visited India in October 2019, Modi was fresh off a general election that hugely boosted his political hand domestically. In Chennai, Xi toured monuments at the ancient city of Mahabalipuram and declared the next several years "the most critical period” of China-India ties.
Clashes at their 3,488-km frontier shattered that momentum. The June 2020 confrontation killed soldiers on both sides and drove relations to their lowest point in decades. Covid halted travel between the nuclear-armed neighbours, while India imposed new restrictions on Chinese investment and technology.
And in 2023, Xi skipped a Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, sending Premier Li Qiang instead in what was seen as a snub to Modi.
It took a meeting of the two leaders on the sidelines of the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, to start right-sizing the relationship. That was followed by a 2025 meeting in Tianjin.
Both countries have restored direct flights, while India has relaxed some curbs on investment from Chinese companies. China and India last month signaled some limited progress in border negotiations.
An official in New Delhi said the central objective of this weekend’s meeting will likely be to give the relationship a broader framework for future engagement. Broad areas of discussion will be economic ties, people-to-people exchange and management of the border dispute, said this person, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
Numerous tension points remain. India remains concerned about Chinese export controls over key machinery like tunnel-digging equipment and inputs like rare-earth magnets and oxides, crucial for its manufacturing sector. Beijing has long been wary of India’s alignment with the US in areas like technology, trade and defense.
India also remains uneasy with China’s engagement in an area it considers its backyard, especially its deepening defence relationship with New Delhi’s archenemy Pakistan.
Most recently, Pakistan’s military showcased an air-defense system resembling a Chinese platform in a promotional video. That comes on top of Pakistan’s much-publicized deployment of Chinese fighter jets in Islamabad’s clash with India last year.
"India-China rivalry remains the biggest brake on BRICS cohesion,” said Reema Bhattacharya, Head of Asia Research, at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
"Xi’s expected visit and recent progress on the border dispute create space for cooperation, but the thaw looks tactical and fragile, driven in part by shared frustration with US tariffs rather than a fundamental strategic reset. Bilateral tensions could quickly resurface.”
Last month’s flash flood that engulfed villages and disrupted trade on the China-Nepal border adds to the uncertainty. China has said dozens of Indians remain missing on its side of the border, home to a popular pilgrimage site.
Beijing has said it’s in contact with foreign embassies over missing foreigners, but hasn’t disclosed any direct effort to locate missing Indian nationals.
Xi’s visit is "significant as a confidence-building mechanism,” said Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House.
But "fundamental grievances” remain, from the border dispute to China’s relationship with Pakistan. "In the absence of a resolution of these fundamental grievances, it will remain a tactical thaw rather than a strategic reset.”
Signs of progress in any upcoming Xi-Modi sit-down would be a framework for dialogue on trade and investment, cooperation on green technology and some effort to address rare-earth supplies from China to India, said Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Geostrategy Programme at the Takshashila Institution.
"There’s been an effort from both sides after Xi Jinping and Modi met in October 2024 in Kazan to try and put a floor on the relationship, rebuild the relationship,” he said.
An unpredictable US under President Donald Trump has added a new wrinkle in China-India ties. India’s relationship with the US, its longtime partner, has deteriorated as trade talks have dragged on, and as Trump has grown closer to Pakistan.
Meanwhile, China-US ties are on an upswing, as Xi has grown more confident in managing Trump following the two countries’ last trade war.
The new dynamic leaves Xi in a stronger position as he goes into a meeting with his Indian counterpart, Kewalramani said.
"At the same time, I think the Chinese realize that India is a massive neighbour and a significant opportunity, but also an actor that you need to work with if you have to achieve some sort of regional order on your terms.” - Bloomberg L.P.
