ANKARA (Bernama-Anadolu): Nearly six months into the US war with Iran, its most visible impact for ordinary Americans is increasingly being felt far from the battlefield, at gas stations, airports, and in household budgets, Anadolu Ajansi (AA) reported.
The national average retail price for regular petrol stood at US$4,006 per gallon as of Aug 10, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), keeping fuel around the politically sensitive US$4 threshold.
The increase is particularly striking compared with expectations before the conflict. In January, the EIA forecast that US gasoline prices would fall 6 per cent in 2026. Its latest outlook instead projects an average price of US$3.78 per gallon for the year, compared with US$3.10 in 2025.
Government inflation data also reflects the scale of the energy shock. Although petrol prices eased in July, they remained 24.6 per cent higher than a year earlier, while overall energy prices were up 14.7 per cent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Annual consumer inflation stood at 3.4 per cent in July, compared with 2.4 per cent in January, before the war began.
The impact varies considerably across the country. In the Washington metropolitan area, gasoline was 24.8 per cent more expensive than a year earlier, while Dallas-Fort Worth recorded an increase of 19.8 per cent.
The consequences are also filtering into other areas of household spending.
Higher crude oil prices increase costs for trucking, shipping and manufacturing, meaning the impact does not end when motorists leave the pump. Food and other goods can eventually become more expensive as businesses face higher transportation and production costs.
Tariffs, supply constraints, and other economic factors are also contributing to current inflation; however, making it misleading to attribute every price increase to the war.
Air travel provides another visible example. The BLS airline fare index was 25.5 per cent higher in July than a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast spot price for jet fuel averaged US$3.40 per gallon in July, nearly 68 per cent higher than in January. Aircraft shortages, strong travel demand, capacity constraints, and reduced competition are also affecting fares.
For US households, this means the Iran conflict is increasingly functioning as an economic issue rather than solely a foreign policy one.
That shift helps explain why Vice President JD Vance explicitly placed energy prices at the top of Washington's objectives in the conflict during a Fox News interview Thursday.
"That's goal number one, keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country," Vance said, adding that ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon was "goal number two."
Public opinion suggests the administration has reason to be concerned.
A Pew Research Centre survey conducted March 23-29 found that 69 per cent of Americans were worried the Iran war would result in higher petrol and fuel prices, making energy costs the public's biggest concern related to the conflict.
Concern crossed party lines, including 79 per cent of Democrats and 59 per cent of Republicans.
More recent polling points to a broader political problem. An Ipsos survey conducted in July found that 58 per cent of Americans disapproved of US military strikes against Iran, compared with 37 per cent who approved.
A separate Ipsos poll conducted from July 29 to Aug 3 found that Democrats held an eight-point advantage over Republicans as the party more trusted to handle the cost of living. The two parties had been nearly tied on the issue in January.
The Strait of Hormuz is central to the connection between the battlefield and American household finances.
In 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway each day, representing more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and the equivalent of roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption.
Continued restrictions on shipping have kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. Brent crude was trading near US$88 a barrel Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate was around US$82.
Although the US imported relatively little of its oil directly through Hormuz before the war, crude is traded on a global market. Disruption to Gulf supplies therefore affects international benchmark prices and, ultimately, what American refiners and motorists pay.
That leaves US consumers exposed to developments thousands of miles away. An Iranian decision on Hormuz, an attack on a tanker, or another escalation between Washington and Tehran can quickly move global oil markets.
For the Trump administration, the political calculation is therefore becoming increasingly domestic.
After months in which Iran's nuclear programme dominated Washington's stated rationale for the conflict, the prices displayed outside American gas stations have emerged as one of the clearest measures by which voters experience the war themselves. -- BERNAMA-ANADOLU
