Established in Bangkok on Aug. 8, 1967, the 11-member Asean celebrated its 59th anniversary on Aug 8. It is the right moment to reflect on the past and confront, with honesty, the obstacles that stand in the way of progress, especially in light of next year’s diamond jubilee.
For this commemoration, member states should recall the reasons the founders decided to work together. This also applies to Indonesia, which has a tendency to see itself as somewhat above Asean and desires to play a larger role befitting a key middle power.
Several challenges the grouping is unlikely to overcome anytime soon include the Myanmar crisis, the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute and slow progress on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
On Myanmar, the junta’s one concrete action on the Five-Point Consensus it agreed five years ago has been to allow Aung San Suu Kyi, now 81, to meet Red Cross resident representative Arnaud de Baecque in Naypyitaw on Aug. 3.
How can Asean be expected to show more flexibility toward Myanmar’s government when it offers no meaningful proof of its own commitments? One supervised meeting with a Red Cross official is a far cry from the ceasefire and dialogue among the points agreed in 2021.
The Thai-Cambodian dispute will haunt Asean for a long time, given the highly emotional nature of the historical conflict and that both governments are tempted to use it to boost domestic popularity.
Cambodia actually has the diplomatic upper hand: The International Court of Justice ruled in 1962 that Preah Vihear temple, which is at the heart of the current escalation, belonged to Cambodia, reaffirming the verdict in 2013.
Thailand has rejected this ruling. Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore offer good examples in ending territorial disputes by accepting the ICJ’s decision.
In 2002, the court awarded Malaysia the islands of Sipadan and Ligitan in the Sulawesi Sea. In 2008, the ICJ awarded Pedra Branca and the Middle Rocks in the Singapore Strait to Singapore and Malaysia, respectively.
When the RCEP entered into force in January 2022, it was hailed as the world’s largest trading bloc, bringing together all 10 Asean members at the time plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The binding deal represents 30 per cent of the global population and GDP and around a quarter of the global trade in goods and services, and will gradually eliminate over 90 per cent of tariffs on all goods traded.
In reality, however, Asean states have not made full use of these tariff reductions: Trade creation has been modest, utilisation far below target and operational and institutional gaps persist.
Businesses still cite complex rules of origin and uneven customs procedures as reasons for having not tapped the deal’s full potential. Unless Asean addresses these gaps, it risks squandering an agreement that took nearly a decade to negotiate.
Despite its shortcomings, Asean is internationally recognised as the second-most successful regional grouping after the European Union. Its standing as the world’s fifth largest economy undeniably signals a bright future as a middle power.
However, all member states except Brunei are net oil and gas importers and have been badly impacted by fallout from the Iran war. Despite the truce, global uncertainty will continue to cast a shadow over the region, while each nation must fight for its own energy interests.
Asean should learn from this shock in shaping future economic cooperation. When Asean leaders meet at the Manila summit in November, they should give these stumbling blocks far more serious attention and not allow ceremonial unity to paper over the fractures that threaten the bloc’s credibility as it approaches 60.
Happy 59th anniversary, Asean! - The Jakarta Post/ANN
