THE country has shed its long-pacifist self-imposed ban on lethal weaponry exports, gunning for a prominent place in the global defence trade – a challenging feat that analysts say could take years to achieve.
Under Japan’s once-strict stance adopted following its World War II surrender and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it has generally restricted arms exports in recent times to non-lethal categories like rescue, transport and surveillance.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government scrapped these constraints last month, allowing firms to supply lethal weaponry to any of the 17 countries where Japan has defence cooperation agreements.
Prohibitions on sales to nations at war remain but can be circumvented under special circumstances.
Five Japanese firms, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, are already in the top 100 global defence companies, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
But they have largely lived off domestic demand from Japan’s military, often in cooperation with US defence firms.
Analysts say a focus on high-tech sectors could help the transition, but caution that it could take years for defence exports to become a big contributor to economic growth, hampered by capacity and workforce shortages.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma said it was a “transition from a domestic, ministry-led procurement model to a normal practice in which companies could drive business opportunities just like other global companies are doing”.
He added that as newcomers to the global market, Japanese firms should focus on “higher-tech niches” like naval and propulsion systems, advanced missiles, sensors and electronics.
With conflicts raging around the world, the international defence market is huge and fast growing, rising by 41% between 2016 and 2025 to almost US$3 trillion, according to Sipri.
While Japanese firms may only export to 17 countries, those include some of the world’s biggest defence spenders like the United States, Germany, India and Britain.
Evolutions in technology and the way wars are now being fought – notably with drones – are also making the global arms market more diffuse, which could benefit Japan, according to analysts at the Stimson Center.
Along with a steep decline in Russian arms exports, Washington’s “increasingly unpredictable, extractive, and at times confrontational approach” has also pushed importers to seek alternatives to the United States, the Stimson Center said in a research note.
“Though the trend remains nascent, for Japan, the wandering eyes of traditional US defence partners could add to the demand for the sorts of sophisticated capabilities Tokyo is well-prepared to offer.” — AFP
