JAKARTA: Indonesia is facing an increased risk of forest fires in 2026, driven not only by the predicted El Nino weather phenomenon but also by a surge in deforestation that has reached its highest rate in nearly 10 years, according to Jakarta-based environmental activists.
Auriga Nusantara, a Jakarta-based think-tank focusing on forestry and environmental conservation, said deforestation surged 66 per cent in 2025 from 2024.
Forest loss was driven by a complex mix of clearing for food and bioenergy crops, oil palm and pulpwood plantations, mining expansion and severe flooding in northern Sumatra due to Cyclone Senyar last November.
Releasing their annual deforestation analysis on March 31, Auriga appealed to the government to pay extra attention in 2026, stressing that a repeat of the devastating 2015 Sumatra and Kalimantan fires cannot be ruled out.
“Alarmingly, deforestation is frequently followed by fires,” said Auriga chairman Timer Manurung, in reply to The Straits Times’ query on March 31.
“Naturally, fires are not easily sparked in a healthy forest. Even when fires do break out, they rarely originate in pristine, intact woodlands,” he added.
Indonesia’s 2015 fire season burned an estimated 2.6 million hectares (ha) and triggered a major environmental and public health disaster, with the Indonesian National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) reporting that more than 500,000 people suffered from acute respiratory infections. Deforestation and fires also release large amounts of greenhouse gases.
The World Bank said the disaster, which spread toxic smoke across parts of South-east Asia, caused an estimated US$16.1 billion (S$20.7 billion) in economic losses.
Auriga said deforestation in Indonesia reached 433,751ha in 2025, compared with 261,574ha in 2024 and 257,385ha in 2023, according to its satellite imagery analysis and investigations on the ground of scores of areas recently deforested.
It was the highest pace of deforestation since 2016, when more than a million hectares were cleared, the think-tank noted.
Of the 433,751ha cleared, only 58 per cent was legal deforestation for other uses, including agriculture, Auriga said.
Possibly making matters worse, Indonesia is bracing itself for an unusually harsh and prolonged dry season in 2026, with forest and land fires already on the rise, even ahead of the onset of El Nino, a climate phenomenon that results in less rain, longer dry spells, and higher temperatures for South-east Asia.
Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency recently forecast a 50 to 60 per cent chance of a weak to moderate El Nino developing by the second half of 2026, warning that this could exacerbate drought conditions.
The National Research and Innovation Agency offered a more dire prediction on March 19, warning that an intense “Godzilla El Nino” is set to hit the country starting in April.
While it is too early to tell how severe the El Nino event might be, outbreaks of fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan have already picked up and are roughly double in number for the first three months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025, according BNPB.
Food programme a major driver of deforestation
Nearly a fifth of the deforestation in 2025 was due to the clearing of land for food and bioenergy crops under a government programme aimed at boosting food and energy self-sufficiency.
The Prabowo administration is aggressively pushing to scale up its national food and energy estate programme and has allocated 20.6 million ha of forest land to help boost production of rice, corn and sugar as well as sugar palm. The government has been promoting bioethanol as well as biodiesel as a way to curb fuel imports.
The programme has alarmed conservationists who fear the clearing of millions of hectares of forest – Auriga has identified 8.8 million ha of natural forest cover in the 20.6 million ha allocation.
Similar food estate programmes by previous administrations failed to dramatically increase crop production, but they caused widespread damage to the environment.
“The government food estate programmes are acting as major drivers of deforestation,” said Mr Timer, pointing out that in Central Kalimantan, for instance, the initiative is driving forest loss directly on sensitive peatlands.
In Central Kalimantan, the government has targeted more than 770,000ha for rice and cassava cultivation, much of which overlaps with ecologically sensitive and previously degraded peatlands.
In Merauke, South Papua province, the government has backed a project spanning roughly 2 million ha primarily dedicated to sugarcane for bioethanol production and rice, drawing heavy criticism from environmentalists.
“Merauke is another region dominated by peat. We are talking about ecosystems that hold immense stored energy,” Mr Timer argued, stressing that converting peatlands into agricultural food estates drains this essential moisture, creating the potential for fires and severe health impacts for local communities.
“The government must exercise extreme caution to ensure these regions retain their natural moisture.”
Of the 433,751ha of deforestation in 2025, as much as 28,889ha of it were peatlands.
The forestry ministry spokesman, Dr Ristianto Pribadi, told ST that Auriga’s data and analyses is valuable input, and stressed that the ministry shares its objective to preserve Indonesia’s forests.
But the ministry said it has a different deforestation figure – 166,450ha for the January-September 2025 period, with the full year data yet to be released.
The different figures could be due to differences in definitions, methods, and calculation approaches, rather than differing facts on the ground, the ministry said.
On the increased pressure on forests, Dr Ristianto said the ministry will address it seriously: “The government maintains strict control through system-based monitoring, field supervision, and law enforcement against violations.”
‘Meagre’ emergency funds for forest fire mitigation
“While fires started by local farmers and villagers are generally small in scale, those triggered by corporate activities tend to be massive,” Mr Timer added, noting that the devastation is significantly worse when these fires occur on peatlands.
That is because peat fires can burn for weeks and release thick, toxic smoke that can spread widely. The tiny particles in the smoke, or haze, get deep inside the lungs and can cause breathing problems and worsen heart conditions.
Uli Arta Siagian, national executive campaign coordinator at conservation group Walhi, also agreed that deforestation increases the risk of forest fires. She emphasised that the recurrence of forest and land fires – such as peat land or grass fires – indicates a lack of progress in improving governance, as well as weak law enforcement against corporate offenders.
Uli also lamented the meagre emergency funds allocated for forest fire mitigation in 2026 – including costly cloud seeding operations. The mitigation budget amounts to only 3 trillion rupiah (S$228 million), while the budget allocated to the BNPB stands at just 491 billion rupiah.
In comparison, Indonesia’s national government spending is budgeted at 3,843 trillion rupiah for 2026, of which 335 trillion rupiah is earmarked for the free nutritious meals for children and pregnant women.
“We cannot rule out the possibility that the impact of this year’s forest fires could be repeated, similar to the severe fires of 2015,” said Uli, highlighting that Riau is once again the epicentre of forest and land fires in 2026.
Eko Yunanda, Walhi’s Riau-based forest campaigner, said the organisation’s analysis revealed that more than a third of the hot spots in Riau between January and March were located within the concessions of 10 oil palm and pulpwood plantation companies operating across the province, including on the islets of Rupat, Bengkalis and Mendol.
This should raise alarm bells, Eko said, adding: “The government should revoke the business licences of corporations that have had repeated cases of fires in their concessions.” - The Straits Times/ANN
