HANOI: The number of storms and tropical depressions in 2026 is forecast to be lower than the multi-year average, according to National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) deputy director Hoang Phuc Lam.
Speaking at a press briefing on hydro-meteorological outlooks held recently in Hanoi, Lam said 2026 may see fewer storms and tropical depressions overall than in 2025.
From February to July, the number of storm systems active in the East Sea – internationally known as the South China Sea – is likely to be close to the multi-year average of about 3.8 systems, with roughly 1.2 making landfall, he said.
Between August and December, this number is expected to fall below the multi-year average of 9.6 systems for this period, with around 3.8 making landfall.
However, strong-intensity storms remain a concern, Lam stressed.
“From August to September, storms and tropical depressions will mainly affect northern regions, while from September to December, they are expected to primarily impact central and southern Vietnam,” he said.
Heatwaves in 2026 are likely to occur more frequently than during the same period in 2025, said the NCHMF deputy director.
In the southern region, heatwaves are expected to begin from late February to early March in the south-eastern provinces, then intensify and gradually expand to the south-western areas.
Meanwhile, localised heatwaves may appear in north-western Vietnam from March.
Around April, areas from Thanh Hoa Province to Hue City are likely to record high temperatures, which will then spread across the entire northern and central regions by the end of the month.
Heat intensity is expected to gradually ease in southern provinces from around May, while northern and central regions will see stronger heat conditions through August.
Lam noted that cold fronts in the early months of 2026 are expected to be weaker than the multi-year average.
However, severe cold spells may still occur, particularly in February in northern mountainous areas, with risks of frost and ice.
Nationwide, the rainy season is forecast to be on a par with long-term averages, beginning in late April to early May in the Central Highlands, in the second half of May in the southern region and around May in the north.
In 2026, the number of widespread heavy rainfall events across the country is expected to be about the same as or lower than the multi-year average.
Heavy rainfall may begin in June in the north, gradually move southward and end around November in central provinces.
Lam warned that from April to July, localised drought and water shortages outside of irrigated areas may occur in the Gia Lai, Dak Lak and Lam Dong provinces.
Meanwhile, during the early dry season of 2026, saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta is forecast to be around the multi-year average and potentially lower than in the dry season from 2024 to 2025.
From February to April, salinity levels may increase but are not expected to cause major impacts on livelihoods or agriculture in the delta, according to the NCHMF deputy director.
Along the south-eastern coast, six high-tide events are forecast on: March 1 to 6, March 28 to April 3, April 27 to May 3, Oct 7 to 13, Nov 4 to 10, and Dec 4 to 10.
During the November and December events, water levels at the Vung Tau station may exceed 4.3m.
Hydro-meteorological experts cautioned that climate change continues to drive increasingly complex and extreme weather patterns.
Authorities and people in Vietnam are advised to proactively prepare and respond by regularly following official forecasts from the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration and the NCHMF, as well as local weather stations and trusted national and local media outlets. - Vietnam News/ANN
