HO CHI MINH CITY: Vietnam remains on track for its biggest coffee crop in four years and higher exports, despite bouts of heavy rain and widespread flooding delaying the harvest.
Production in 2025-26 is expected to be 10% higher than the previous season, Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said on Tuesday (Dec 2), maintaining an earlier estimate.
Still, any more rain over the coming weeks could affect bean quality, he added.
Exports of robusta beans are also expected to climb about 7% to 1.6 million tonness in the same period, Simexco Daklak Ltd. Chairman, Le Duc Huy, said in an interview.
The country’s total output of both arabica and robusta is projected at 1.9 million tonnes this year, he added.
"Inventories in consuming countries are low and people want to ship more coffee out of Vietnam,” Huy said on the sidelines of the Asia International Coffee Conference in Ho Chi Minh City.
"But local consumption is also higher,” which could curb overseas shipments, he added.
Vietnam is the world’s biggest producer of robusta beans, which are typically used for instant coffee and espresso blends, and Simexco is among the country’s largest coffee exporters.
A series of storms has pummeled Vietnam this year, leading to floods in some of the country’s key coffee-growing regions, including the provinces of Dak Lak and Gia Lai.
The downpours raised concerns around crop damage just as bean collection started. Farmers have completed at least 10% of the harvest, Vicofa chair Hai said.
"The harvest will peak in December, and additional storms or heavy rains this month could have a significant impact,” he said.
"We will reassess output after that.”
Despite the extreme weather, crop quality is expected to remain good, said Simexco’s Huy. Farmers have also invested in improved machines for better bean drying and more reliable quality, he said.
"There are some areas where trees are old and cherries had already ripened, so during the rains their quality was affected, but this percentage is very small, less than 3%,” he said.
"If there are no more storms, no more floods, the quality of Vietnam will be nice this year.”
Huy expects his company’s total output to increase by 10% to 132,000 tonnes this year, from 120,000 tonnes in the 2024-25 period. The country’s second-biggest exporter, Vinh Hiep Co., also played down weather damage, expecting a similar rise in its exports.
"We’ll have more coffee supply this year,” Huy said. "But with the weather, unpredictable tariffs, and low inventories, we still don’t have a clear picture. We cannot anticipate where prices will go.”
Prices of robusta coffee have reached record highs this year as extreme weather and climate change affects output in several growers. Demand, however, has remained resilient. - Bloomberg
