WELLINGTON/SOUTH-EAST ASIA (Xinhua): New research shows coral reefs cannot migrate to cooler waters fast enough to survive climate change, as relocation would take centuries, far outpaced by rapid ocean warming, a New Zealand expert said on Saturday.
A major study, published in Science Advances, finds that even modest cuts to emissions could be crucial for the survival of coral reefs beyond 2100, according to Christopher Cornwall, one of the authors of the study and senior lecturer in marine biology at New Zealand's Victoria University of Wellington.
Earlier theories proposed that tropical coral species could escape warming seas by "expanding poleward and establishing new, higher latitude coral reefs," Cornwall said.
"Unfortunately, while we've confirmed that coral reef range expansion will indeed eventually occur, the biggest coral losses are expected in the next 50 years, meaning these new, higher-latitude reefs won't form fast enough to save most tropical corals," he said.
"Places like northern Florida, southern Australia, and southern Japan might eventually see new reefs, but not soon enough to help many tropical coral species survive the 21st century," he added.
Researchers modeling 50,000 reef sites under three emissions scenarios project that even 1.5-2 degrees Celsius of warming could reduce coral populations by a third by 2100, with recovery taking hundreds of years.
Coral reefs, which support a third of all marine species and millions of livelihoods, especially in low- and middle-income countries, are highly vulnerable to environmental changes, with their decline expected to worsen as climate change continues, the study said.
Researchers stress that mitigating non-climate stressors, such as pollution, could improve resilience in both existing and future reef habitats. - Xinhua
