Blinken-Wang meeting in Munich shows tensions between US and China remain

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (The Straits Times/Asia News Network): The meeting on Saturday (Feb 18) in Europe between the United States’ and China’s top diplomats helped in renewing diplomatic engagement between the superpowers that had been knocked askew by the furore over the Chinese balloon shot down over the US earlier in February, said analysts.

But the strong words that both sides had for each other also underscore frictions in bilateral ties that will persist and hinder progress.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (pic) and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met for an hour on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany, two weeks after Washington shot down a suspected surveillance balloon from China.

China, which denied Washington’s claims of spying and said it was a civilian weather balloon that had flown off course, had reacted angrily to the downing of its balloon.

Earlier on Saturday, Wang called America’s shooting down of the balloon “hysterical” and an attempt to divert attention from its domestic problems.

A two-line statement issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Sunday said that in his meeting with Blinken, Wang had “made clear China’s stern position” and demanded that the US “change course and face up to and address the damage caused to US-China relations by the abuse of force”.

In a statement after his meeting with Wang on Saturday, Blinken, whose trip to Beijing earlier in February was cancelled as a result of the diplomatic kerfuffle, chided China for its “unacceptable violation of US sovereignty and international law”.

That trip of Blinken’s “would have been particularly significant as an indicator that stability efforts remain constructive and on course”, said Anna Ashton, the US-China director in the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.

At the Munich Security Conference, China’s response to the balloon incident suggests that it is trying to avert impressions of culpability by shifting attention and blame to the US, said political scientist Chong Ja Ian at the National University of Singapore.

“This may be reflective of a desire on the part of the Chinese Communist Party leadership to maintain an image of strength and correctness,” said Associate Professor Chong.

“There may be some desire to retain or rebuild an ability to negotiate from a position of relative strength on the part of Beijing, since it appears that the balloon incident was a result of something going wrong on the Chinese side.”

Still, Saturday’s meeting indicated that the desire to maintain an even keel on US-China ties, at least, remained.

American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Zack Cooper said the meeting demonstrates that both Beijing and Washington are seeking ways to stabilise their relationship.

He added that it could smooth the way for further talks, including between US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping. Mr Biden had said last week that they would “remain in communication”.

Said Dr Cooper: “Although I doubt anything substantial was accomplished during the Blinken-Wang meeting in Munich, it will likely make it easier for Blinken to travel to Beijing in the next few months, and perhaps for Joe Biden and Xi Jinping to have a phone call in coming weeks.”

That the two top diplomats met in Munich was significant and allowed both sides to clarify their positions, said Dr Wang Huiyao, chairman of Beijing-based think-tank Centre for China and Globalisation.

“It’s useful to promote better understanding and also pave the way for future communications and visits,” said Dr Wang.

But the analysts also highlighted the obvious friction between both sides, made clear in their statements and speeches.

Said Ashton: “It’s very good the meeting happened, but clearly the tension between both sides is palpable. We seem to be in a moment where we cannot engage in bilateral dialogue without first publicly upbraiding each other.”

Dr Cooper said: “The fact is that there will continue to be stressors on bilateral ties, and I suspect that these repeated hiccups will make it difficult for the two sides to make any measurable progress in the year ahead.”

That the two countries are willing to talk on the sidelines of the conference, however, suggests a recognition to create some mechanisms to reduce the potential for miscalculation and misunderstanding, said Prof Chong.

“Whether this creates enough confidence to mend fences remains to be seen. Tentative as the current steps to engage may be, they are a start to perhaps setting the conditions for more talks. Nonetheless, these measures are almost certain to meet with obstacles down the road.”

One upcoming area of tension, said Ashton, could be over their potentially conflicting responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which will hit its one-year mark this week.

Biden is set to give a speech on the war on Tuesday in Poland, while Blinken warned Wang on Saturday of consequences if China provided material support to Russia or helped it to evade sanctions.

Wang, meanwhile, said that China intends to present a peace plan for the conflict.

Said Ashton: “The US is poised to announce additional sanctions on Chinese entities for violating Russia sanctions.

“China is simultaneously presenting itself as the willing peace broker. These are very different narratives playing out.”