'Claimants only’ Code of Conduct on South China Sea risks polarising Asean

SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 25:The suggestion to negotiate a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea among claimant countries, rather than between Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) and China carries the risk of fracturing the 10-nation grouping, an analyst warned.

The grouping could see its unity erode should six members engage in talks with China rather than the grouping as a whole, putting Asean centrality on the line while allowing Asean’s powerful northern neighbour to outmanoeuvre and dictate terms to those seeking to negotiate the CoC, Collins Chong Yew Keat a foreign affairs analyst with University of Malaya said.

“By excluding other players in this CoC management, especially key regional players and Asean, it will only create a tiered priority and level of regional cohesiveness, already severely weakened by Beijing’s strategic moves in the region and Asean’s ineffectiveness itself.

“It will only provide greater openings and advantages for Beijing, as the CoC is not confined to dispute engagement on the disputed territories only. The whole dilemma of the South China Sea is dictated by Beijing’s outlandish claim on almost 90 percent of its entirety, which is not supported by the rules and norms,” he said.

Chong characterised the move as complementing China’s “divide and rule” approach to disputes surrounding the sea, with the six-way talks allowing it to reinforce its grip and provide future flexibility in shaping the orientation of these countries.

“Beijing cannot afford to deal with the Asean grouping as a whole, which will prolong the status quo and limit its ability to manoeuvre, knowing that Asean’s central approach will reduce Beijing’s overall clout in military and hard power,” he said.

“If Asean comes to the picture in the CoC, Beijing is wary of Indonesia to dictate the direction and pace, and that Jakarta’s intention is seen suspiciously by Beijing as to project and regain its regional leadership and to galvanise Asean to push back against these moves,” he said.

Chong also said that such developments will inevitably mean greater militarisation of the sea and the region by leaving out others, the Asean claimants will be forced into engage escalating defensive moves to content with existing and future disputes involving China, thus aligning more with external powers in an unchecked build-up of more hard power measures to deal with China’s consistent bellicosity.

“This will worsen the already declining deterrence impact and consistently rising arms race and militarisation of foreign policy tools. It will also intensify polarisation within Asean, and extend the opening for Beijing to exploit,” he said.

Four Asean members namely Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, hold claims over the sea. While Indonesia does not regard itself as a party to the dispute, China claims historic rights to parts of that sea that overlaps Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore and Thailand are not claimants .

“Laos, Thailand and Cambodia will be caught in a difficult dilemma, as they will not want to upset Beijing if they are not agreeable to this new proposal of claimant only setting, but at the same time they will need to be seen as a worthy partner in the grouping’s collective efforts to solve the issue,” Chong said.

“By dealing with the claimants only in the progress of the Code of Conduct (CoC), Beijing can use it as a tailor-made approach to better strengthen its chips and cards and to gain better leverage based on the individual grip on the states involved.

"All the claimant parties have ingrained reliance on China, which Beijing is wise and strategic to capitalise on through this divide and conquer approach,” he added.

China claims “historical rights” to almost 90 percent of the South China Sea, an area roughly demarcated by the so-called nine-dash line. Asean claimants have rejected those claims. Additionally, the 2016 international arbitration tribunal ruled that China’s claims had no legal basis.

Asean members and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) in the South China Sea 20 years ago and embarked on the negotiation on a COC, which is expected to be legally binding and play a decisive role in diffusing regional territorial disputes. - Agencies