BANGKOK Aug 1 (Reuters): The Thai baht strengthened 1% on Monday, logging a strong start to the month that is likely to see the country finally join its regional and global peers in normalising its pandemic-era stimulus, while other Asian currencies remained subdued.
The Indian rupee ticked higher following a few sessions of gains, days ahead of the central bank meeting where the Reserve Bank of India is seen hiking its key interest rate between 35 and 50 basis points (bps).
Elsewhere, Japan's yen was trading at an over six-week high, firming more than half-a-percent as the US dollar drifted near its three-week low, while other Asian currencies traded slightly lower against the greenback.
The Thai baht resumed trade after an extended weekend to mark its best intraday move since May 5. Investor sentiment got a lift after the central bank said it was highly likely to raise its key policy rate next week, its first hike since late 2018.
"Although several Asian central banks have surprised markets on the hawkish side this year, Thailand's policymakers are likely to take a more cautious approach," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.
They expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to hike its rate by 25 basis points - expected widely as the central bank is seen moving gradually towards tightening considering nascent recovery amid persistent inflation headwind.
The Indian rupee, one of the worst-hit currencies in the region from two-pronged hits from soaring global inflation and rising oil prices, was up 0.2%, marking its third straight session of gains.
"Market bets appear to be tilted towards on a 35 bps hike to lift the repo rate to 5.25%, but we think this does not go far enough, soon enough," Vishnu Varathan, Economics & Strategy head at Mizuho Bank said.
"Our take is that optimal policy anchoring will require at least another 50 bps hike to 5.40%." Barclays' analysts differ, expecting a 35 bps hike on the reasoning that recent fall in commodity prices and increased confidence in curbing inflation "should have reduced the likelihood of a 50 bps hike".
Data showed China's factory activity logged slower growth in July just a month after rebounding strongly, with persistent demand weakness and Covid-19 outbreaks.
Elsewhere in the region, South Korea's won weakened as much as 0.8%, marking its worst day in more than two weeks, while Indonesia's rupiah and Taiwan's dollar slipped about 0.3% each. Indonesia's 10-year benchmark bond yield was trading at 7.127%, down 7 pips on inflows following slight growth outlook improvement.
Meanwhile, data released earlier in the day showed inflation accelerated to a seven-year high in July.
"With higher inflation potentially affecting inflation expectations, with the U.S. Federal Reserve continue its hiking cycle, and a weak rupiah, we continue to expect Bank Indonesia to start its hiking cycle in August with a 25 bps hike," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
Among equities, shares in Singapore and Thailand advanced about 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, while equities in the Philippines were down 1.1%. - Reuters
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