Presidential elections may spell fat Philippine stock returns

Ferdinand Marcos Jr. leads in most polls, with Vice President Leni Robredo considered by many analysts as the only other candidate who can pull out a victory. - AP

MANILA (Bloomberg) The eve of Philippine presidential elections could be a good window to plow money into the nation’s equities. In the six months following a presidential election, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index has given world-beating returns in four of the last five times there were polls to elect a new leader.

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index was up 3.4% six months after Rodrigo Duterte won in 2016, almost double the MSCI World’s rise in the same period. The gauge was up 38% at the six-month point after the 2010 vote and 17% after the 2004 election, about twice the global gauge’s gain in the same periods. A drop after the 1998 vote -- in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and the election of B-movie actor Joseph Estrada as president-- was the only time the Philippine index lagged its MSCI peer comprising both developed and emerging markets.