SEOUL: South Korean President Lee Jae Myung faces his first electoral test a year into his term with local votes that could boost his party’s influence throughout the nation or show the limitations of his appeal as the main opposition party tries to rebuild itself.
Thousands of municipal council seats nationwide are up for grabs, but attention is likely to focus on 16 governor and mayoral races in South Korea’s biggest cities, including Seoul and Busan.
Lee’s progressive Democratic Party won only five of those posts in the last local elections in 2022 compared with the conservative People Power Party’s haul of 12. The number of those positions this time around has been reduced by the upcoming merger of Gwangju city and South Jeolla province.
While the result won’t significantly impact dynamics in parliament, where Lee’s Democratic Party has a large majority, a clear ruling party victory would further symbolise the strength of Lee’s popularity.
According to a Gallup Korea poll conducted May 19-21, 46% of respondents said Lee’s party should win a majority of the local positions being contested in the nationwide elections, while 33% expected opposition candidates to prevail.
Looming large over the election is the lingering shadow of impeached former President Yoon Suk Yeol of the PPP. His short-lived gamble to impose martial law in December 2024 ultimately paved the way for Lee’s rise to power a year ago.
"The group that holds the deciding vote in this election is common-sense conservatives,” said Cho Gab-je, a political commentator. Those voters face a difficult choice: whether to back the PPP at the risk of strengthening its far-right wing, or to withhold their support and allow the dominant DP to further consolidate power, he said.
Since winning office, Lee has been riding a wave of support that has consistently hovered around the 60% mark in opinion polls.
His administration has also benefited from a surge of global demand for artificial intelligence technology that has propelled South Korea’s semiconductor exports, helping power both the country’s economic growth and sharp gains in the nation’s booming stock market.
Still, in an electorate known for its sharp political divide, the PPP will be looking to confound the polls and peg back support for Lee’s party.
Among the key contests is the battle for Seoul’s mayor, a vote that pits the DP’s Chong Won-O against long-running PPP incumbent Oh Se-hoon.
Ousting Oh, a relatively moderate conservative whose first stint as Seoul mayor started in 2006, would serve as another illustration of the swing of support away from the PPP.
With four years remaining in office, maintaining a stable relationship with the US is one of Lee’s top priorities.
The US has criticised South Korea for making little progress on fulfilling its investment commitments, and Washington is increasingly accusing Seoul of discriminating against American companies. - Bloomberg
