Regional cooperation: An Asean Foreign Ministers’ retreat was held at the the Pullman Hotel in Luang Prabang, Laos, in january. — AFP
The emerging geopolitical landscape dictates that Indonesia must be prepared for the worst. Nobody wants a war to occur, but the likelihood of one happening in the Indo-Pacific region has continued to grow.
WITH a new president taking office in October, it is a good time for Indonesia to rethink its foreign policy, taking into account its rising position on the global stage and the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
If, over the last 10 years, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has put the emphasis on economic ties, we should now make defence the driving force. The emerging geopolitical landscape dictates that Indonesia must be prepared for the worst.
Nobody wants a war to occur, but the likelihood of one happening in the Indo-Pacific region has continued to grow, given the escalating rivalry between the United States and China and the brewing tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. If war happens, Indonesia will be vulnerable. We are not even in a position to defend our territories and sovereignty.
The government’s 15-year programme to meet a minimum essential force goal for the Indonesian Military (TNI) ends this year, and by the TNI’s own admission, we are only about 70% of the way to the target.
The incoming administration must incorporate defence into its foreign policy. What good is all the economic progress we are making if we cannot defend ourselves?
The government’s Golden Indonesia 2045 Vision of becoming one of the five largest economies in the world with greater prosperity all around, may be a pipe dream unless we address our defence shortcomings sooner rather than later.
Some of Indonesia’s current foreign policy principles may need to be changed or recalibrated to accommodate these needs. For one, our foreign policy must be more defence-oriented, rather than economically oriented.
This means building stronger relations with countries that share our defence and security concerns, who can help strengthen our ability not only to defend the country but also to pursue peace in the region and around the world.
We can no longer rely solely on soft power to pursue peace. As a rising middle power, we need a stronger military to be able speak with authority and credibility on many matters, particularly on global peace and security.
Indonesia needs to invest less in Asean and put more diplomatic time and resources into its relations with other countries with whom it shares defence and security concerns.
Our diplomats should stop reciting the long-held mantra of Asean being “the cornerstone of our foreign policy” when the association is now becoming more a restraining factor.
Indonesia needs to invest less in Asean, says the writer. — Agencies
Asean is disunited on many issues, not least defence policy, where each member acts independently in accordance with its own national interests. Realistically, members do not see eye to eye on the US-China rivalry or the South China Sea conflict.
As the bloc’s largest member, Indonesia should continue to lead Asean, take initiative – as we have done all this time – and use Asean as a collective voice on the global stage on many issues. But we should not be as invested as we have historically been.
Indonesia needs to recalibrate its non-alignment principle. We used it in the last cold war, pitting the United States against the Soviet Union. Today, it’s the US versus China, and their choice of theatre is right here on our doorstep, in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
At present, we lean closer to China on economic matters but closer to the US and its allies on defence. Given the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, we may want to show greater flexibility in applying the nonalignment policy.
Watch closely the heightening tensions between China and the Philippines over their dispute in the South China Sea.
Effectively left out in the cold by its Asean neighbours, Manila is now building closer defence ties with the United States, Australia and Japan. Despite the Foreign Ministry’s constant denials, Indonesia does have a territorial dispute with China.
The latter’s “ten-dash-line”, covering its territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea, overlaps with Indonesia’s Natuna Sea.
There have already been frictions between China’s Coast Guard and the Indonesian Navy in the area. It is time to stop denying that there is a dispute. It could send the wrong signals to our military.
Indonesia should maintain its “free and active” foreign policy principle, but the next administration should put the emphasis on the active part in pursuing our defense and security interests. We need to be active both in building peace and building our defence.
Indonesia was already on the right track when President Jokowi, upon taking power in 2014, set out his foreign policy vision of Indonesia becoming a maritime power. He came up with the idea of Indonesia as an Indo-Pacific global maritime fulcrum. His economics obsession, however, got the better of him, and that vision has remained largely undeveloped.
A word of advice to the folks at the Foreign Ministry: The ministry should now be drafting a white paper on foreign policy for the incoming administration, irrespective of whether the current leadership agrees about the need to change our foreign policy direction.
They have about six months to do so. Publishing a white paper would be a first for the Foreign Ministry, but it’s a tradition that the ministry should build now that Indonesia has become a middle power.
The white paper would give longer-term projections of where Indonesia sees itself on the global stage in the coming years and make our foreign policy more consistent, predictable and transparent.
Now that it looks certain that Prabowo Subianto has won the February presidential election, his background in the government and his military years bode well for this more defence-oriented foreign policy. As defence minister for the last five years, he understands better than anybody in the country Indonesia’s defence shortcomings and vulnerabilities.
Prabowo, who this month was conferred an honorary fourth star to make him a full general, will seek to be a strong leader in facing down any security threats the country may face, including in talking with leaders of the major powers.
The new president will need a strong foreign minister who understands the importance of defense but also the complexity of the world of diplomacy.
This could be a career diplomat steeped in defence matters or a figure from the defence community but one who understands diplomacy and is able to negotiate deals for Indonesia.
General Prabowo can begin screening the candidates now. — The Jakarta Post/ANN
Endy Bayuni is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post.
