PETALING JAYA: New car sales are expected to soften in 2023, especially for the affordable brands.
This would mark a reversal from the automotive industry’s strong turnover this year.
With macroeconomic headwinds anticipated to be challenging in 2023, most of the automotive players covered by RHB Research are likely to see a flattish or lower revenues.
In a note yesterday, RHB Research analyst Jim Lim Khai Xhiang said automotive executives are upbeat about the performance for the second half of 2022 (2H22), but are cautious on the outlook for 2023.
“In particular, MBM Resources Bhd
’s management pointed out that macroeconomic headwinds will likely impact the lower to middle-income earners the most, weakening their purchasing power – which we think could weigh on new car sales for the affordable brands.
“While the management teams of companies we cover are upbeat on 2H22 prospects, some are cautious on the possible macroeconomic headwinds in 2023.
“We maintain our ‘neutral’ stance, premised on a cautious 2023,” Lim noted.
He also highlighted the downside risks that may hamper the sector’s recovery, which include persistent shortages of key components and delays in new model launches.
“Other risks are tighter bank approvals for car loans and a weaker ringgit,” he added.
Despite his neutral view on the automotive sector, Lim said he favours Bermaz Auto Bhd (BAuto) and Sime Darby Bhd.
“We still favour BAuto for its 7% dividend yield for the financial year of 2023 and growth in its Kia and Peugeot brands, and Sime Darby for its about 5% yield and resilience in its industrial segment and high-end motor brands,” he said.
Commenting on the sector’s earnings in the second quarter of 2022, Lim said the results came above RHB Research’s expectations, mainly driven by better-than-expected margins.
“We gathered that July orders were generally down 20% to 30% from 1H22 averages, but are gradually recovering month-on-month.
“Chip supplies have also started to normalise, but marques across the board are still short on various components.
“For example, certain European marques are still lacking wire harnesses, speakers and head lamps,” he said.
Lim attributed the 20% to 30% lower orders for new cars in July to the end of the sales and service tax exemption in end-June.
“We gathered that orders have risen month-on-month in August but still remain subdued versus 1H22’s strong sales,” he said.
RHB Research has raised the automotive sector’s one-year forward earnings by 5%, mainly lifted by the 27% increase for UMW Holdings Bhd.
The improved expectations for UMW is due to the higher automotive margin forecast and UMW Toyota’s sales assumptions.
“We also lifted two-year forward earnings (FY+2) by 2%, as our higher Perodua sales assumption (fuelled by the popularity of the all-new Alza) boosted UMW’s and MBM’s earnings forecasts.
“We are expecting earnings for most players to decline in FY+2 due to softening car sales in 2023, except for BAuto and Sime Darby, driven by growth in Kia or Peugeot sales and industrial segment, respectively,” according to Lim.
