Historic flooding in 2020 isolated many areas in the central province of Quang Binh. - VNA/VNS
HANOI: The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicted that natural disasters in 2024 will be highly complex, with more frequent and stronger storms and the potential reocurrence of the historic flooding scenario of 2020.
The centre attributed the increase in weather extremes to the transition of the ENSO phenomenon combined with climate change.
Due to the shift from El Nino to neutral and then to La Nina, it is expected that from now until August, the East Sea (internationally known as the South China Sea) might experience about 3-5 storms and tropical depressions, with approximately one making landfall. This number is lower than the multi-year average of 5-6 storms, with two affecting the mainland.
Towards the end of the year, La Nina could lead to heavy rains and major storms. From September to November, around seven to nine storms and tropical depressions are expected in the East Sea, with approximately three to four making landfall.
This is higher than the usual annual average of six or seven storms, with two or three hitting the mainland.
The centre also noted that this year's storm season could see storms with complex trajectories and intensities. Particularly, La Nina's impact in the latter half of 2024 may result in heavy, concentrated rains in central Việt Nam, potentially repeating the historic flooding of 2020. — Vietnam News/ANN
