Abe was at the forefront of Japanese politics, pulling strings as a political titan and kingmaker before he died. - AFP
TOKYO (The Straits Times/ANN): The assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving yet polarising leader, continues to reverberate in the country’s corridors of power – from Tokyo’s political hub of Nagatacho to the streets of Shimonoseki, the western city that was both his home town and electoral district.
He was a backbencher when he was killed a year ago today, after stepping down as prime minister in 2020 due to ill health. Yet such was his influence that the 100-member faction he led in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is still rudderless. The LDP faction led by current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is just 46-strong.
Mr Abe did not anoint any successor and the group, which still calls itself the “Abe faction”, is plagued by infighting amid worries it will break up. Nearly 1,000km from Tokyo, the Shimonoseki constituency held by the Abe family for generations is set to disappear at the next general election due by October 2025, when boundaries will be redrawn to address rural-urban population disparities.
Unlike other former prime ministers who faded away after stepping down, Mr Abe was at the forefront of Japanese politics, pulling strings as a political titan and kingmaker before he died.
“Abe, his entourage and his faction, symbolised the hard line of the LDP,” Dr Toru Yoshida of Kyoto’s Doshisha University told The Straits Times. “Kishida’s leadership was thanks to Abe, with whom he could make a deal.”
Dr Sota Kato of The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank said that while Mr Abe’s death should have given Mr Kishida more freedom, “Abe’s absence has made it difficult to keep the LDP together”. This was evident in the confusion among the LDP’s fiscal hawks and doves over funding a proposed increase in the defence budget to 2 per cent of gross domestic product.
The recent squabbling with junior coalition partner Komeito over the fielding of candidates would also have been unthinkable if Mr Abe were alive.
Mr Abe was gunned down in Nara during a campaign rally by a 42-year-old man who said he bore a grudge against the politician for his purported links with the Unification Church, which the killer blamed for brainwashing and bankrupting his mother. The assassination exposed shady links between LDP politics and religion in Japan, sinking support for Mr Kishida.
Within the LDP’s Abe faction, infighting has led to a power struggle between as many as five men eyeing the top job. They are Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda, Diet affairs chief Tsuyoshi Takagi, top government spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno, and Upper House secretary-general Hiroshige Seko. This has forced the faction to move towards a group leadership structure, much to the displeasure of its members.
None of the five has the same influence or charisma as Mr Abe, and they lack his public popularity and recognition abroad, said Dr Mikitaka Masuyama of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
Sophia University political scientist Koichi Nakano, describing Mr Abe as a “strongman”, told ST: “This shows the difficulty of leadership succession with a strongman leader. How to find a successor, how to restabilise the regime, becomes very, very difficult.”
Dr Kato pointed out that Mr Kishida would have discussed important policies and party decisions with Mr Abe were he still alive, adding: “Although Abe did not force Kishida to follow his opinions, Kishida knew that if he went against Abe’s intentions, his political foundations were in jeopardy.”
The Abe faction still has strength in numbers, he said. “Kishida is a realist, he is not the type to pursue policy ideas without considering the balance within the party.”
Mr Kishida is continuing Mr Abe’s push to grow Japan’s geopolitical importance and military might, as well as pursue economic reforms – bringing the country closer to achieving Mr Abe’s vision of a “Beautiful Japan”.
Yet some changes are inevitable.
A by-election to fill Mr Abe’s vacant seat in April was won by Mr Shinji Yoshida, a local assemblyman picked by Mr Abe’s widow. With the seat vanishing in the next election and Mr Yoshida’s low profile, the LDP will likely force the rookie in national politics out in favour of other incumbents, experts said. It will be left to Mr Abe’s 32-year-old nephew Nobuchiyo Kishi, whose Yamaguchi constituency seat has long been held by the Kishi family, to carry on the political dynasty.
“If Abe were still alive, the solution would have been different,” Dr Kato said.- The Straits Times/ANN
