KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s industrial production index (IPI) rose 1.8% in November 2015 from a year ago, but this was slower than economists’ forecast of a 4.1% increase due to slower growth in the manufacturing sector.
The Statistics Department said on Monday the slight growth in the November 2015 IPI was supported by positive growth in manufacturing index (4.1%) and electricity index (2.0%). However, the mining index recorded a decrease of 4.1%,” it said.
Manufacturing sector output expanded moderately by 4.1% in November 2015 after registering a strong growth of 6.2% in October 2015. The major sub-sectors which expanded were electrical and electronics products (9.3%); food, beverages and tobacco (4.6%) and non-metallic mineral products, basic metal and fabricated metal products (4.3%).
On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, manufacturing output fell 1.1% in November 2015.
The department said the mining sector output fell by 4.1% in November 2015 due to the decrease in natural gas index (8.7%) and crude oil index (0.3%). On a seasonally adjusted terms, output for the mining sector contracted 1.2% from October 2015.
Output from the electricity sector output grew 2.0% in November 2015 on-year but when compared to the previous month, it fell 1.3%.
The department said the IPI in October 2015 remain unchanged at 4.2% year-on-year.
“In seasonally adjusted terms, the IPI in November 2015 declined by 1.1% month-on-month following a decrease in all indices: manufacturing (1.1%), mining (1.2%) and electricity (1.3%),” it said.
Nomura Research said the manufacturing industrial output’s decline was consistent with the export data in November.
“Notwithstanding the pullback in November, industrial production data continue to suggest economic activity is holding up despite both external headwinds and the implementation of the goods and services tax in April.
“We estimate GDP growth was still tracking around 4.6% on-year in Q4 (from 4.7% in Q3) – supported mainly by stronger growth in agriculture and services – and 5.0% for full-year 2015.
“This remains consistent with Bank Negara Malaysia’s 4.5%-5.5% forecast range, and we expect the policy rate to remain unchanged through 2016,” Nomura Research said.
The Statistics Department said on Monday the slight growth in the November 2015 IPI was supported by positive growth in manufacturing index (4.1%) and electricity index (2.0%). However, the mining index recorded a decrease of 4.1%,” it said.
Manufacturing sector output expanded moderately by 4.1% in November 2015 after registering a strong growth of 6.2% in October 2015. The major sub-sectors which expanded were electrical and electronics products (9.3%); food, beverages and tobacco (4.6%) and non-metallic mineral products, basic metal and fabricated metal products (4.3%).
On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, manufacturing output fell 1.1% in November 2015.
The department said the mining sector output fell by 4.1% in November 2015 due to the decrease in natural gas index (8.7%) and crude oil index (0.3%). On a seasonally adjusted terms, output for the mining sector contracted 1.2% from October 2015.
Output from the electricity sector output grew 2.0% in November 2015 on-year but when compared to the previous month, it fell 1.3%.
The department said the IPI in October 2015 remain unchanged at 4.2% year-on-year.
“In seasonally adjusted terms, the IPI in November 2015 declined by 1.1% month-on-month following a decrease in all indices: manufacturing (1.1%), mining (1.2%) and electricity (1.3%),” it said.
Nomura Research said the manufacturing industrial output’s decline was consistent with the export data in November.
“Notwithstanding the pullback in November, industrial production data continue to suggest economic activity is holding up despite both external headwinds and the implementation of the goods and services tax in April.
“We estimate GDP growth was still tracking around 4.6% on-year in Q4 (from 4.7% in Q3) – supported mainly by stronger growth in agriculture and services – and 5.0% for full-year 2015.
“This remains consistent with Bank Negara Malaysia’s 4.5%-5.5% forecast range, and we expect the policy rate to remain unchanged through 2016,” Nomura Research said.
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