Peru’s brush with the past

Garnering support: Mendoza (left) and Fujimori stating their case during a presidential debate in Lima, Peru.

As things stand, the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori is poised to become Peru’s next president.

THERE’S nothing like an election to re-open old political wounds. And that’s even more applicable when there’s a realistic chance that power will change hands. On Wednesday, the people of Peru will take to the polls to elect a new president.

In a relatively crowded field, the daughter of ex-dictator Alberto Fujimori will challenge Veronika Mendoza, the photogenic face of the current regime, even as former presidents Alan Garcia and Alejandro Toledo try to reclaim their throne and rewrite their legacy.

In the bigger picture, the once dominant wave of Latin American left-wing electoral triumphs looks to be receding into the history books. Peru, the home of Machu Pichu, Mario Vargas Llosa and Teofilo Cubilas, was late to the party when former army officer Ollanta Humala was elected in 2011 and is unlikely to continue down that path.

I spoke to my friend Lima-based lawyer Ivan Melgar Morey about the elections. As a committed conservative who was once proposed as a candidate for the Christian People’s Party, Ivan’s views are often diametrically opposed to mine. In fact, my interest in the presidency of left-wing dictator Juan Velasco (from 1968 to 1975) resulted from a rant of Ivan’s a decade ago!

“Right now, there’s nothing clear, except that Keiko Fujimori will probably win in second round if nobody reaches 50% in the first round,” said Ivan. “According to the polls, the only candidate that can beat the daughter of the dictator is Pedro Pablo Kuscinzky, a liberal candidate that defends the free market.”

Indeed, it does look as if Keiko Fujimori will win the first round and the battle is whether the run-off will be between her and Kuscinzky or her and Mendoza. That reminded me of how the elder Fujimori was propelled from obscurity to the presidency in the 1990 race against conservative novelist Vargas Llosa.

All the defeated candidates from the first round threw their weight behind Alberto who won despite conceding a large lead in the first round.

Incidentally, I have to point out the marvels of South American politics ... No less than six countries - Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru and Surinam - have elected Presidents of Asian descent. That’s something that rigid race-based regimes could learn from.

Sadly, Fujimori showed dictatorial tendencies while in power. “I had some hope in the first Fujimori Government, but when he dissolved the Congress, he lost me,” recalls Ivan, who finds himself having to choose between the lesser of evils.

“I don’t want to vote for the ex-dictator’s daughter, but I am also opposed to Mendoza. Mendoza was from Humala’s Party, but she resigned before the elections. Humala’s wife (who I think is the real President) is supporting her, because she won’t initiate a trial against them.”

Mendoza also defends illegal mining (Her father is the prince of the illegal miners) and wants to destroy the system and the Central bank (Banco Central de Reserva) , which would be a disaster. She’s the candidate of the corrupt pseudo-left Nationalista government which has created a disaster in the last five years,” said Ivan, pulling no punches.

Ivan also wrote off the chances of the other ex-Presidents. “Alan has no chances. He united with Lourdes Flores from the PPC who has lost all the elections. As a vice-presidential candidate she has destroyed Alan’s chances. She’s too unpopular.”

Indeed, Ivan has become resigned to his fate in a country that has at least seen the decline of the terror wielded by the Maoist Shining Path, fast GDP growth and a rapid decline in poverty rate, signs that things weren’t that bad under Humala, surely?

Ivan is having none of it. “I don’t know for whom to vote. Kuscinzky is the only alternative. Too liberal for me, but I will vote for the lesser evil.”

Star online news editor Martin Vengadesan loves it when political races have unpredictable winners.