Exclusive - Clinton leads Trump in key swing states, would likely win election: poll

U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a rally at John Marshall High School in Cleveland, Ohio August 17, 2016. REUTERS/Mark Makela

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If the U.S. presidential election were held today, Democrat Hillary Clinton would win the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia and have a 95 percent chance of beating Republican Donald Trump to become America’s first female president, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting patterns under different election scenarios, shows Clinton currently beating Trump in the popular vote by six percentage points and ahead in 19 states, including most of the larger-population ones that heavily influence the outcome of the election.