Mid-summer’s complex journey to simplicity

AS we move into a long hot summer, it’s time to reflect whether we are on the cusp of the slow road to global recovery or another lurch into recession.

In late May, the Fed’s warning of “tapering” quantitative easing caused financial markets to react violently. We saw social turmoil in Turkey, Brazil and Egypt, the inter-bank shock in China and a reversal of capital flows to emerging markets.