Political risks leave euro-pound analysts divided

Falling rates: A woman walking past a bureau of exchange in Victoria, central London on Oct 12 displaying the exchange rates. – EPA

LONDON: For analysts trying to plot the course of the pound against the euro in 2017, the key decision is judging which side of the English Channel will see greater political turbulence.

Strategists are trying to pinpoint whether the UK’s exit process from the European Union or the rise of populism in the rest of Europe carries the bigger risk. The dichotomy is evident in Bloomberg’s survey of currency analysts, where the range between the highest and lowest year-end forecasts for euro-sterling is the widest going into a new year since at least 2006.