Meteorological agencies worldwide are racing to develop and roll out new AI tools: the US National Hurricane Center teamed up with Google this month to improve tropical cyclone forecasts, while the premier European forecasting body became the first major prediction center to release a model this year. — Pixabay
China’s weather agency is testing more than a dozen artificial intelligence models in an effort to enhance its forecasting, with a system from Huawei Technologies Co showing accelerated improvement.
The best models from the trial will be prioritized for deployment by provincial bureaus, and granted priority access to official weather data, according to the China Meteorological Administration, which is running the program. The CMA has said it wants to ensure "orderly and standardized development” as the technology rapidly develops at home and abroad.
In recent weeks, Huawei’s Pangu-Weather has improved relative to others in the program. It was the second-best last month and over the first half of June, according to CMA data, compared with its seventh-place ranking in January. In particular, the model was better able to predict the intensity and geographic scope of several heavy rainfall events across southern China in April.
Huawei didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Meteorological agencies worldwide are racing to develop and roll out new AI tools: the US National Hurricane Center teamed up with Google this month to improve tropical cyclone forecasts, while the premier European forecasting body became the first major prediction center to release a model this year.
While AI models have shown promise, outperforming traditional physics-based methods on a number of measures, they do have some limitations. Many are trained on historical data, which could make them prone to underestimating extremes as the Earth’s warming climate enters uncharted territory.
China stands out for the number of models it’s publicly testing. The trial scores them based on how well they predict key metrics such as temperature, wind speed, and humidity. Performance scores are updated daily, and detailed monthly evaluation reports are posted online.
Of the 14 models being evaluated, other top performers include Fuxi from Fudan University, and Puyun from Hangzhou-based startup Meta Carbon Co. Another is Sphere Fusion Forecast, jointly developed by China’s state weather agency, Tsinghua University, and US chipmaker Nvidia Corp.
China’s weather industry is closely regulated and regarded as a sector with important national security considerations, and only government meteorological agencies are allowed to issue public forecasts. New measures took effect this month regulating the use of AI, with the state weather bureau and the powerful Cyberspace Administration of China spearheading the initiative. – Bloomberg
