Analysis: Amazon's far-reaching ambitions, lack of profits, unnerve investors

  • TECH
  • Wednesday, 30 Jul 2014

SAN FRANCISCO: Inc's message to investors has always been clear: Trust in founder and CEO Jeff Bezos. But after more than a year of mostly disappointing quarterly results, that faith is being tested.

Some on Wall Street wonder if Amazon may have bitten off more than it can chew. After an unusually busy first half of the year that saw the online retailer spend on developing everything from mobile phones and Hollywood-style production to grocery deliveries, investors are ready to see it curtail its ambitions and start delivering sustainable profits.

Or at least offer evidence that Bezos' ever-increasing investments are going to soon generate appealing returns for its main online retailing business.

"It does get frustrating when they continue to spend quarter after quarter and they don't let the revenue flow through," said Michael Scanlon, who manages US$3.5bil (RM11.12bil) at Manulife Asset Management and holds shares of Amazon. "I'm definitely ready for profits."

Others argue that easing off on the throttle now may thwart its goal of becoming the Wal-Mart of online retail. That is particularly the case as China's Alibaba — which handles more e-commerce than Amazon and eBay Inc combined — slowly develops a US consumer presence and prepares for an initial public offering in the US. 

Big selling point 

Bezos insists on taking the long view. In his letter to shareholders last year, he responded to criticism about spending by saying investing in a "just-in-time fashion would be too clever by half." 

Its increasing share of the retail dollar is still a big selling point for investors. 

"You have to take a long-term perspective and you have to buy in that you're going to see solid topline growth," said Needham & Co analyst Kerry Rice. 

But that market share grab comes at a price — a price that was highlighted in its second-quarter results issued on Thursday. Amazon reported its largest quarterly loss since 2012 as operating expenses rose 24%, led by a 40% surge in spending on technology and content. 

Its shares fell 9.6% on Friday, wiping out about US$16bil (RM50.84bil) of value. The company has now fallen short of Wall Street's earnings expectations in seven of the past nine quarters. 

Perhaps worse, it predicted an operating loss of up to US$810mil (RM2.57bil) for the current third quarter, the biggest quarter-on-quarter reversal in profitability since 2003, B. Riley analysts estimated. Included is US$410mil (RM1.30bil) in stock-based compensation in the third quarter, but excluded are "acquisitions, investments, restructurings." 

Investors say they are concerned about not only Amazon spending every dollar that comes in the door but also the lack of disclosure about where it is being spent. 

"Most companies with the kind of gross revenue Amazon has are not posting these kind of losses," said Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, which sold its stake in Amazon last year. "You've got to give more information to justify faith in the name." 

But Amazon has always kept its data close, even basic details such as how many Kindle tablets it has sold or the precise number of subscribers to its Amazon Prime free shipping and media service, citing competitive reasons. 

Scanlon said that greater disclosure "would help you do things like measure return on investments. You can start to get your arms around more what the duration of the spending will be." 

Tough to swallow 

Two areas that have proven hard for some to swallow are a panoply of new devices based on a heavily modified and less-established version of Google's Android, and Amazon's move into programme production. 

This week, Amazon launched the US$649 (RM2,062.78) Fire Phone, but it failed to impress reviewers. The phone joins a Fire streaming box and a line of tablets and e-readers — most sold at prices close to their cost to produce and get to market — in its drive to galvanise sales of digital books and media. 

Amazon's foray into TV — from Alpha House starring John Goodman to just-announced kids show Annedroids — has never garnered Netflix-like acclaim. Yet it intends to devote more than US$100mil (RM317.75mil) to original video content this quarter. 

"There's a lot of stuff they're doing that's questionable," said S&P Capital IQ analyst Tuna Amobi, who has a "sell" rating on Amazon, referring in particular to Amazon's content and hardware endeavours. 

Investors might be soothed if Amazon did a share buyback, Scanlon said, adding it was unlikely. While Amazon has more than US$5bil (RM15.89bil) of cash and cash equivalents as of June, analysts say there's little percentage in Amazon buying its own shares, given their lofty valuation even after a slump this year. 

Some assessments tag Amazon's shares with a highly-overvalued warning sign. 

According to Thomson Reuters StarMine, Amazon’s shares carry an intrinsic worth of US$36.37 (RM115.59) — or about a tenth of its current price — making the stock one of the most overvalued names in its universe of more than 4,000 US companies. 

StarMine calculates its intrinsic value figure using growth expectations for the coming decade, and it suggests that at its current price, investors are discounting a much faster growth rate than Amazon could hope to achieve in coming years. 

B. Riley, which downgraded Amazon to neutral from buy on Friday, argued it was hard to justify its valuation given "compromised cash flows." 

"There's nothing wrong with spending to diversify your business, but it has to be a focused manner as opposed to throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks," Amobi said. 

"They're a public company, they need some sensitivity" to shareholders. — Reuters 

Article type: metered
User Type: anonymous web
User Status:
Campaign ID: 1
Cxense type: free
User access status: 3
Join our Telegram channel to get our Evening Alerts and breaking news highlights , Jeff Bezos


Next In Tech News

Under siege, China EdTech giants take steps to curb fallout
Kazakhstan restores access to LinkedIn after talks with firm
Spain's Cellnex posts wider first-half loss, raises outlook
BT says on track after reporting 3% rise in Q1 earnings
Senators eye cryptocurrency taxes to fund infrastructure plan
Zuckerberg says Facebook’s future lies in virtual ‘metaverse’
Orange writes down $4.4 billion on weaker Spanish prospects
Virus surge upends plans for getting workers back to offices
Nokia lifts full-year forecast as turnaround takes root
Saifuddin: Malaysia Tech Month 2021 expected to create RM50mil in business opportunities

Stories You'll Enjoy