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Germany’s second economic miracle is ending

THE cognoscenti of international economics are once again agape, and not in a flattering way, at the budget surpluses Germany’s government keeps running, when instead it should be stimulating the economy with tax cuts and higher spending. The surplus revealed this week for 2019, at 13.5 billion euros (US$15bil), is the fifth in a row, and the biggest ever.

The Global Forex Market

The dollar appreciated 0.63% to 97.45 largely driven by resilient economic data which includes December’s The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) coming in better than expected, accelerating to a four-month high of 55.0 from 53.9 in November (cons: 54.5) supported by higher production and inventories, and rising optimism over a potential trade resolution.

Global Forex Market

THE dollar appreciated by 0.36% to 97.631 following a confluence of factors such as the dovish ECB meeting; higher demand for safe-haven assets as optimism in the US-China trade talks was offset by another round of Brexit saga; and better-than-expected flash PMI data with the October Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary estimate rising to 51.5 points from 51.1 points in September and beating market expectation of 50.7.

Global Forex Market

THE US dollar depreciated 0.1% to 98.309 following improving trade discussions between China and the United States, encouraging investors to flock to risk assets.

Global Foreign Exchange Market

Amid a short working week with the Labour Day break on Monday, the dollar weakened by 0.51% to 98.41 due to global risk-on sentiment as Washington and Beijing agreed to hold high-level talks in October, raising hopes of a de-escalation in trade tensions that has battered global economic growth.