New faces need old friends

Nor Hizwan Ahmad at the launch of the new political party Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM). (DEC 21, 2021 ). — ART CHEN/The Star

THE conventional wisdom is that if small, relatively new parties want to win seats in the upcoming Johor polls, they have to become part of a coalition or alliance.

So far, four such parties – Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) and Parti Warisan – have indicated that they could or will be on the ballot paper.

Pejuang has declared it is going for 42 seats (out of the 56 state constituencies), PBM has sighted two seats, Muda announced six seats with three more under negotiation, and Warisan is considering contesting but has not given any details.

All these parties are untested except for Warisan, which contested in Sabah. But the Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal-led party, which ruled Sabah from 2018 to 2020, is unknown in Peninsular Malaysia.

Before it was registered, Pejuang fielded an independent candidate in the Slim by-election in Perak in August 2020. The Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad magic of GE14 (the 2018 General Election) did not work in Slim and Pejuang’s candidate was trounced.

As newly-launched national parties, Pejuang, PBM, Muda and Warisan do not have constituency advantage. Unlike established parties like Umno and DAP, they don’t have any traditionally safe seats.

Out of the four new national parties, only Muda so far will be with a coalition for the Johor elections – Pakatan Harapan. Under the Pakatan big tent concept, the party led by Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman has an electoral pact with Amanah and DAP to contest in six seats.

Muda’s seat negotiation with PKR – the other Pakatan party that is technically not with the coalition as it is using its own symbol for the elections – has a take-it-or-leave-it feel. Both parties are bargaining hard for three seats, though not in the same constituencies.

With the electoral deal sealed with Pakatan (ie, DAP and Amanah, which sacrificed their six seats), Muda will be entering the state polls assured that the Opposition votes will not be split between the two parties. That will be an advantage for them as neither will compete against the other. The advantage might win Muda a seat – Puteri Wangsa in the urban Tebrau Parliamentary constituency near Johor Baru.

However, the big question is whether the Muda/PKR friction might cause Syed Saddiq’s party to lose the seat. PKR is angry that Amanah (which was given Pakatan’s blessing to contest in Puteri Wangsa) has sacrificed a seat that the coalition was fairly certain of winning to untested Muda. Will it sabotage Muda’s chances there?

Pejuang has declared it is going solo in all 42 seats, which are mainly in Malay-majority constituencies. The party led by Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir is like the proverbial deer caught in the middle of a fight between Umno/Barisan Nasional and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia/Perikatan Nasional.

But the fight between Umno and Bersatu is turning out to be personal. If I didn’t know politics better, I would have thought that the Johor state election is a presidential election between former Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. It is ex-Prime Minister versus ex-Prime Minister, with ex-Prime Minister Dr Mahathir playing the spoiler role.

With Pejuang going out on its own after refusing to join Pakatan’s big tent, the party is unlikely to make an impact. It needs to be with another party or part of a coalition.

With its no-holds-barred confrontational style, especially with Pakatan parties, Warisan seems to have painted itself into a corner. And it is a lonely corner. If the Sabah-based party does decide to contest in Johor – it would be the first time it’s contesting in Peninsular Malaysia – it is unlikely to win any seats.

Warisan thought it could double team with Muda to win seats outside of its Sabah power base – “It looks like Warisan’s whole strategy in Peninsular Malayasia was to team up with Muda,” said a Warisan insider.

But counting on Muda has turned out to be a big mistake: “A 10th man would have told Shafie that Muda had eyes on other parties, especially Pakatan, while it was holding Warisan’s hand. Muda gave Warisan hope that they would be in a political marriage when it was not registered and when Pakatan did not want it in the same bed for the Melaka polls,” said the Warisan insider.

(The “10th man” refers to the devil’s advocate: If there are 10 people in a room and nine agree, the role of the 10th is to disagree and point out flaws in whatever decision the group has reached.)

After Pakatan did badly in the Melaka and Sarawak polls, DAP and Amanah realised that it needed Muda to give it a boost in the Johor polls.

“Muda is like ‘bini muda (young wife)’ who can add spunk to DAP and Amanah, which voters are getting tired of,” a Pakatan insider told me.

PBM can test whether its “Great Reset 2030” slogan works among Johor voters. Its senior vice president (1), Steven Choong, is the Tebrau MP. The party is hoping that although it is unknown in Johor, its MP’s name recognition could win it votes and seats. But PBM has to realise that it has to build up its brand recognition.

A PBM insider actually admitted that the party is not ready for an election. It is only two months old, and its Great Reset agenda has not been intensively promoted. But she said her party’s advantage is it has grassroots support.

The Johor polls might be a burial ground for the new national parties. Some of them are making a grave mistake in contesting. It would be better if they stayed out of the election and consolidated their support nationwide.

If they get zero seats in Johor, they might lose political momentum and they might not recover from the perception that they are “losers”.

The consensus I am getting from several political analysts is that unless they have crunched the numbers and it shows they have a chance, they shouldn’t contest.

The leadership should also listen to credible data and not allow their Johor leaders to pressure them into agreeing to contest.

So which of the four parties can win at least one seat in Johor? The answer to that is: Which party is part of a coalition?