Portuguese presidential candidate of the Socialist Party, Antonio Jose Seguro, delivers a speech after leading the first round of Portugal's presidential election, in Caldas da Rainha, Portugal, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Rodrigo Antunes
LISBON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The moderate Socialist candidate is poised for a decisive victory over the populist far-right leader in Sunday's presidential election run-off in Portugal, according to a new poll.
Antonio Jose Seguro, ex-Socialist leader, leads with 67% in voting intentions, versus 33% for the leader of anti-establishment Chega, Andre Ventura, according to the survey by Catolica University pollsters released by broadcaster RTP late Tuesday.
In the five decades since Portugal's Carnation Revolution ended authoritarian rule, a presidential runoff has occurred only once before, in 1986, highlighting political fragmentation and voter frustration with mainstream parties amid the far-right's rise.
PRESIDENT CAN MEDIATE IN DIVIDED POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Portugal's presidency is largely ceremonial, but plays a key role in mediating the country's divided political landscape and holds powers to veto legislation and dismiss the government.
Seguro has said he would be a moderate, unifying president, independent of partisan politics, and would not act as a "shadow prime minister", refusing to interfere in the government's day-to-day role.
By contrast, Ventura has warned he would be "an interventionist president", vowing to fight decades of mainstream party corruption and advancing a strong anti-immigration agenda.
He faces criticism for remarks seen as racist towards the Roma community and South Asian immigrants.
Chega, founded less than seven years ago, emerged last May as the main opposition force after winning 22.8% of the vote in a parliamentary election.
Ventura's critics say he is only using the presidential election to further strengthen and expand his party's presence in the country.
The survey, conducted between January 29 and February 2, interviewed 1,601 people and has a margin of error of 2.4%.
(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; Editing by Alex Richardson)
