France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu speaks to the press following a meeting with MPs members of defence commissions, in Paris, France December 1, 2025. JULIEN DE ROSA/Pool via REUTERS
PARIS, Dec 9 (Reuters) - France's social security budget faces a knife-edge vote on Tuesday that could trigger a fresh political crisis and leave a 30-billion-euro ($35 billion) hole in funding for healthcare, pensions and welfare.
Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has no majority in parliament and his scramble to win Socialist support - including suspending President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform - has alienated centrist and conservative allies, leaving the bill's fate uncertain.
Lawmakers in the lower house begin reviewing the bill after 4 p.m. (1500 GMT) on Tuesday, days after narrowly approving the taxation side of the legislation.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure said on Monday his party could back the bill after winning concessions - including suspension of Macron's landmark 2023 pension reform until after the 2027 presidential election.
But the far right and hard left are expected to vote against, while government allies such as the centrist Horizon and the conservative Republicains could abstain or vote 'no'. They say Lecornu gave too much ground by sacrificing pension reform and raising taxes to appease the Socialists.
Social security accounts for over 40% of France's overall public sector spending, covering welfare, healthcare and pensions.
Lecornu, a Macron loyalist, warned last week that rejection would create a shortfall of up to 30 billion euros ($35 billion) - nearly twice the 17 billion euros in the original bill. That would jeopardise the entire 2025 public sector budget with time running out to pass it before year-end, potentially forcing him to seek stopgap legislation.
The government aims to cut France's budget deficit - already one of the euro zone's largest - to less than 5% of GDP next year. But it has little room to manoeuvre in a fractious parliament where no party holds a majority.
Budget battles have intensified since Macron lost his majority in a snap election last year, triggering instability that has toppled three governments. A fight over last year's budget brought down Michel Barnier's cabinet through a no-confidence vote.
($1 = 0.8604 euros)
(Reporting by Leigh Thomas and Elizabeth Pineau, Editing by William Maclean)
