ROME, July 28 (Xinhua) -- Italy's population is projected to shrink by nearly a quarter over the next five decades, with the country's southern regions expected to experience the most significant losses, according to a report released Monday by the National Statistics Institute (ISTAT).
The report forecasts that Italy's population - currently estimated at 59 million - will decline to 54.7 million by 2050 and further to 45.8 million by 2080, representing a 22-percent drop over 55 years. The projection underscores the severity of the demographic crisis in a country already known for having one of the world's oldest populations.
ISTAT attributes the long-term decline to persistently low birth rates, high life expectancy, and changing family structures. Italy's fertility rate stands at just 1.2 children per woman - well below the 2.1 threshold needed for population replacement. The country's average age has risen to 46.4 years.
Even after accounting for immigration, ISTAT noted that population inflows will not be sufficient to reverse the downward trend, particularly under current restrictive migration policies.
The demographic shift is expected to significantly alter Italy's age distribution. By 2050, individuals aged 65 and over will account for 34.6 percent of the population, up from 24.3 percent today. The working-age population (15-64 years) is projected to fall to 54.3 percent from 63.5 percent, while the share of children under 14 is expected to decline slightly from 12.2 percent to 11.2 percent.
Household structures are also evolving. Currently, three in ten households in Italy consist of couples with children - a figure forecast to drop to just one in five by 2050. Meanwhile, single-person households are projected to increase from 36.8 percent to 41.1 percent of the total.
The effects of population decline will not be uniform across the country. Southern Italy - historically affected by youth out-migration and economic stagnation - is expected to lose 3.4 million residents by 2050 and up to 7.9 million by 2080. While northern regions may experience modest population growth through 2030, they too are projected to enter a gradual decline thereafter.
