Next U.S. recession may be long, moderate, painful: Bloomberg


By Xia Lin

NEW YORK, July 5 (Xinhua) -- The next economic recession in the United States, which economists see as increasingly possible by the end of next year, may well be modest, but it might also be long, reported Bloomberg on Sunday.

Many observers expect any decline to be a lot less wrenching than the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis and the back-to-back downturns seen in the 1980s, when inflation was last this high, according to the report.

"The economy is simply not as far out of whack as it was in those earlier periods," the economists were quoted as saying.

While the recession may be moderate, it could end up lasting longer than the abbreviated, eight-month contractions of 1990-91 and 2001. That's because elevated inflation may hold the Federal Reserve back from rushing to reverse the downturn, said the report.

"No matter what shape the pullback takes, one thing seems certain: There will be a lot of hurt when it comes," it added.

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