An earthquake's impact can be predicted - but only after it hits


  • World Premium
  • Sunday, 07 Jul 2019

FILE PHOTO: A house burns after an earthquake in Ridgecrest, California, U.S. July 5, 2019. Jessica Weston/Daily Independent via REUTERS

(Reuters) - Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27% chance of experiencing a third earthquake greater than magnitude 6, but a 96% chance of going through a tremor of magnitude 5 or higher.

Those precise probabilities were generated by scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), using models based on longstanding principles of seismic behaviour and decades of data on aftershocks from earthquakes.

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