PETALING JAYA: Malaysia could be in for a hotter year ahead – maybe even the hottest on record – with an El Nino possibly materialising in the second half of 2026.
Apart from the increased likelihood of heatwaves, weather experts are expressing concerns over dam water levels, crop growth and the risk of forest fires.
Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said models forecast a 60% to 70% chance for El Nino to develop in the second half of the year and it is also likely to continue into 2027.
“If the El Nino does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.
“It would also result in Indonesia experiencing drier and warmer conditions as well,” he said yesterday.
He also cautioned that an El Nino could possibly impact water levels at dams alongside crop growth.
2024 was the warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), with Malaysia recording daily average temperatures of 27.55ºC in 2024.
This marked an increase of 0.38% compared to the average temperatures between 1991 and 2020.
Temperatures then were influenced by an El Nino phenomenon which began in 2023 before weakening in early 2024.
El Nino occurs on average every two to seven years, and the episodes typically last nine to 12 months.
It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These episodes can result in increases of between 0.5ºC and 2ºC over regular temperatures.
Prof Fredolin said all states nationwide could be impacted by El Nino depending on its strength.
“They could be affected across different periods during the El Nino,” he said.
According to the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia), the majority of forecast models indicate a generally drier weather pattern for the period between February and July this year.
In its long-range weather outlook dated Feb 5, preliminary assessments suggest that dry conditions are likely to significantly affect western Sarawak, with the potential to persist until the end of the outlook period.
In other regions, particularly the western and southern parts of Peninsular Malaysia, hot and dry conditions are also expected, especially during the mid- to late stages of the outlook period, according to the department.
“Such conditions may heighten the risk of forest fires, potentially resulting in episodes of haze.
“This anticipated weather pattern is consistent with a projected shift towards El Nino conditions,” read the report.
Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah of Universiti Malaya, however, said there must be closer monitoring to be certain of a shift towards El Nino conditions.
He said that both Sumatra and the peninsula are influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during El Nino episodes, which can result in instances of worsening air quality and also possible coral bleaching.
Referencing the El Nino in 2019, Prof Azizan said that while it was weak, it coincided with a positive IOD reading, resulting in drier conditions in the region.
“Extensive burning between July and September that year across Sumatra and Kalimantan wreaked havoc on air quality, raising it to unhealthy levels,” he added.
Based on media reports as of 2015, El Nino has hit Malaysia 12 times, with the first occurring between 1951 and 1952.
The El Nino from 1997 to 1998 also saw a water crisis occurring.
