Political relevance: Shafie remains strong in his natural bases of Semporna and neighbouring Lahad Datu.
KOTA KINABALU: Opposition Parti Warisan is emerging as the main contender in the Sabah election, amid the haggling for seats between giant coalition rivals.
Political analysts see Warisan, led by Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, as more settled and organised, giving them a head start as Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional have yet to see a firm seat arrangement.
Political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang said the absence of internal disputes within Warisan allowed it to mobilise its campaign and shape public perception in its favour.
“Warisan is banking on its image as a truly local-based party. By introducing new faces and fresh manifestos, it hopes to reconnect with voters.
“There’s growing talk that Chinese voters, particularly in semi-urban and mixed seats, are viewing Warisan more favourably; a trend that could boost the party’s reputation among urban communities,” Bagang observed.
However, Warisan still face issues with the native Kadazandusun, Murut and Rungus where opponents have previously used the “PTI-friendly” (illegal immigrant friendly) bogeyman card against Shafie – the east coast Sabah warlord – to sway the native voters in the rural areas.
However, Bagang said the entry of several Kadazandusun-Murut leaders into Warisan may help shed the “PTI-friendly” label.
“Still, the issue remains sensitive and can be used by Shafie’s rivals to sway undecided voters. How well Warisan handles this perception will determine whether it can win over more support from the community,” said Bagang.
In the native heartland, Bagang observed that apart from the challenge by the major coalitions, Warisan also faces tough competition from rivals like Sabah STAR, Parti KDM and independents under the Black Wave movement.
“Each of them have their own strength, especially Sabah STAR. For KDM and Black Wave, it will be their litmus test,” said Bagang, observing that Warisan continues to hold firm in its key constituencies especially in the east coast of Sabah.
“Yet, its dominance could be tested if GRS-Pakatan and Barisan-Pakatan manage to strike smart seat deals and avoid “friendly contests”.
“A united front from these coalitions would make the electoral battle much tougher for Warisan,” he said.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) senior lecturer Prof Dr Romzi Ationg agrees that Warisan remains a serious contender in Sabah politics.
“Currently, Warisan is arguably the strongest single party. But it does not mean that it is in a position to displace incumbents or totally dominate, unless things break in its favour,” Romzi said.
“If I were to summarise in one line, Warisan has a credible shot at being the major force in a power-sharing deal. But forming a government alone would require near-perfect conditions,” he said.
Shafie, who was chief minister from 2018 to 2020 before his government was toppled by the Perikatan Nasional-Barisan alliance, remains strong in his natural bases of Semporna and neighbouring Lahad Datu.
The 68-year-old has been Semporna lawmaker since 1995.
However, analysts believe if GRS-Pakatan and Pakatan-Barisan seats are ironed out with no “friendly contests”, Warisan could face a daunting task to retain their bases.
“If both GRS and Barisan field candidates, vote-splitting lets Warisan retain dominance,” Romzi said, adding that local issues over fishery subsidies and coastal road neglect have triggered anti-GRS sentiments in Warisan stronghold areas.
