KOTA KINABALU: Malaysia needs to improve its preparations for the eventuality of earthquakes instead of taking a reactive approach, says a local geologist.
Prof Dr Felix Tongkul said earthquakes are still poorly understood and yet to be properly quantified in Malaysia.
The former Natural Disaster Research Centre director at Universiti Malaysia Sabah's Faculty of Science and Natural Resources said there was a low but distinct possibility of a strong incident of at least 6.5 magnitude in Malaysia, particularly Sabah.
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As a way forward for disaster preparedness, he proposed comprehensive geological and engineering studies, coordinated seismic and geodetic monitoring, and human resource capacity building.
He added that coordinated public education, special research and development funds and setting up a National Earthquake Research Centre were also potential steps to be taken.
He said there is a growing urgency for improved earthquake studies, more so with the recent disaster in Myanmar and Thailand.
“Technically, a 6.5-magnitude earthquake is possible in Sabah, but infrequent. The probability is low, but if it happens, it would have a high impact,” he said when contacted recently.
Prof Tongkul said historical earthquake records in Sabah show tremors up to 6.3 magnitude (the 1923 Lahad Datu earthquake), 6.2 (1976, Lahad Datu) and 6.0 (2015, Ranau).
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Based on his research paper published in 2021, the region's faults (Ranau, Lahad Datu, Kudat) have characteristics that can potentially generate earthquakes in the 6.0 to 6.5 magnitude range, based on fault length, tectonic setting, and recorded activity.
He said a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment done for Sabah in 2018 indicated peak ground acceleration (PGA) values consistent with earthquakes of magnitudes from 6.0 to 6.2, but gaps in data limit precise forecasting.
As for other parts of Malaysia, Prof Tongkul said over the past decades, significant earthquakes from West Sumatra have been felt several times in Peninsular Malaysia.
US Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake data shows that some 50 earthquakes with a magnitude above 6.0 occurred within 1,000km of Kuala Lumpur since 1973, and 221 within 1,000km of Kota Kinabalu in the same period, he added.
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Though the effect is minor, it is still concerning, especially to vulnerable high-rise buildings, he said.
Likewise, earthquakes from the Sulu and Celebes seas are periodically felt as slight tremors in Sabah, he said.
Rare earthquakes from Kalimantan are also felt as slight tremors in Sarawak, according to Prof Tongkul.
He said during the 2015 Ranau earthquake, there was no usable earthquake hazard model or map for mitigation planning and impact reduction.
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Furthermore, basic scientific data such as PGA of the Ranau quake and past tremors were inadequate and not readily available for formulating a building code.
He said the lack of engineering data on the strength of existing buildings adds to the problem of coming up with realistic guidelines for earthquake-resistant buildings.
“The communities affected by the 2015 Ranau earthquake did not know what to do for several days as they were unprepared," he added.
