How will BN’s 30 seats sway?

PETALING JAYA: Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) are ready to give their numbers to Perikatan Nasional in the latter’s bid to form the new Federal Government, but there are doubts as to which way Barisan Nasional’s 30 seats will finally sway.

Analysts believe that although Perikatan chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin declared that he has the majority to form the government and become the 10th prime minister, there were other possibilities on how alliances to forge a ruling coalition could pan out.

Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said although it seemed like a Perikatan-Barisan-GPS-GRS coalition was “almost a done deal”, Pakatan Harapan would also court Barisan for its numbers.

He felt a Barisan-Pakatan government could also work.

“Logically yes, because there is less competition over the (support) of the same (group) of conservative Malays between Barisan and Pakatan,” he said.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said it was very possible that Barisan would opt for a Perikatan-led government.

“Although there might still be resistance from the pro-Zahid group, I think eventually Umno will decide to bring Barisan to join this coalition.

“There is a growing discontent within the party and the calls for Barisan chairman (Datuk Seri Dr) Ahmad Zahid (Hamidi) to resign are getting louder,” he said.

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He said although a Perikatan-Barisan-GPS-GRS pact would have 131 seats, it would present a “cohesion test” for such a Perikatan-led government.

“It depends on leadership. Will Muhyiddin be able to impose discipline? Will GPS accommodate PAS’ views and vice-versa?” he said.

As for Pakatan, Tunku Mohar said the coalition’s chances to come to power was very slim.

“The only chance is if Barisan decides not to join Perikatan, GPS and GRS,” he added.

He said the possibility of Barisan and Pakatan joining forces would also depend on PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli, and DAP and pro-Perikatan MPs being able to accept such a coalition.

It is understood that Umno leaders are also divided over supporting Perikatan or Pakatan.

Commenting on this, Tunku Mohar said it would be a tough call for Barisan.

“It is divided because a faction would not want to work with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, while another would not want to work with Muhyiddin.

“It’s unclear if their division is over policy matters. It has to choose between being a weak coalition partner with Perikatan and a slightly stronger one with Pakatan. It’s a dilemma because it will also affect its survival,” he said.

Pakatan won 81 seats, while Perikatan took 73, GPS 22 and GRS six.