PETALING JAYA: Voters in the so-called GE15 “hot seats” may be torn between individuals they like and loyalty to a particular political party, say analysts.
Council of Professors member Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Nik Mahmod said some voters will place more emphasis on a candidate’s credentials than the party in GE15, unlike previous polls where voting was done along party lines.
“This is likely for urban, semi-urban and young voters who may be looking at the candidate this time.
“Some candidates attract more interest than the parties they represent.
“For instance, Khairy Jamaluddin (KJ) may have a daunting task in Sungai Buloh.
“But because he is KJ, he will get support and may spring a surprise,” he said.
In 2018, Pakatan Harapan won the Sungai Buloh parliamentary seat with a 26,000-vote margin through PKR’s R. Sivarasa.
For GE15, incumbent Sivarasa has been replaced by Datuk R. Ramanan, a move that some say could erode Pakatan’s support in Sungai Buloh.
Another hot seat is Kuala Selangor, where Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz will take on former health minister and incumbent Datuk Seri Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political science expert Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said that Khairy and Zafrul had gained high visibility due to their ministerial posts.
“They have to make sure voters will look beyond the symbol, especially fence-sitters and first-time voters.
“Our study shows that voters will vote by looking at their candidates.
“However, a more thorough analysis shows that if a party has a good candidate, strong machinery and minimal internal sabotage and bickering, they will put up a much better fight,” he said when contacted.
Dzulkefly won the Kuala Selangor seat for Pakatan with an 8,498-vote majority in 2018 by standing as an Amanah candidate.
He first won the seat in 2008 when he was with PAS, but lost it to Barisan Nasional in the 2013 general election under Amanah.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said the contest for the Arau parliamentary seat will be a good example of whether voters will choose a candidate over a symbol.
“The incumbent, Datuk Seri Dr Shahidan Kassim, served his constituents well over the years and created an aura for himself.
“If he decides to defend his seat, we will know if his aura is big enough to attract voters or if Umno will have a bigger pull factor,” he said when contacted.
Azmi said that Shahidan could create problems by defending the seat against his party’s wishes.
Shahidan has served as Arau MP for four terms after winning the seat in the 1986, 1990, 2013 and 2018 polls.
He was dropped by Umno for GE15 in favour of Arau Umno division youth chief Datuk Rozabil Abd Rahman.
Shahidan, who also served as Perlis Mentri Besar between 1995 and 2008, has opted to contest Arau under the Perikatan Nasional banner.
