A FEW days ago, a close relative asked on WhatsApp if I had an inkling of when the next general election was going to be held.
This is the question I am most often asked, reflecting the political uncertainty that has plagued Malaysia since the 2020 Sheraton Move that led to the country installing three prime ministers within two years.
With inflation and soaring food prices, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob has indicated that it is not the right time to call for polls. However, there are factions within Umno that want a GE soon.
As for Pakatan Harapan leaders, they were of the view that there is no need to dissolve Parliament so soon.
When the GE will be called will depend on several factors: firstly, the government will likely consider the return date of 14,306 Malaysian pilgrims from haj on Aug 13.
“Anything earlier than that would be unsuitable as a large number of the pilgrims will be away to perform their haj,” said a political observer.
Secondly, there is also a need to weigh in preparations for National Day on Aug 31 as well as Malaysia Day on Sept 16.
“The mood of the people will be good and this reinforces the feeling that the GE may be called as early as October,” noted the political observer.
However, he pointed out another factor to consider: Budget 2023, which is presented at the end of October, and all its “wow factor” that comes with allocations, incentives and other forms of assistance for the rakyat, will only be felt at the end of January or early February 2023.
“At the end of the day, it will be up to the Prime Minister to make the call,” he said.
The Finance Ministry has kick-started its pre-Budget tour to gather ideas, suggestions and opinions from stakeholders.
The official portal for Budget 2023 had also been activated since June 3.
As for Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, he was of the view that the best time for GE15 would be after the Budget 2023 tabling in October.
“Of course, the Budget must have the ‘wow’ factor which reflects on the work done by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob,” he said.
Economist Dr Carmelo Ferlito, chief executive officer of the Centre for Market Education, said although he believes that there is a need for an election, it is important for contenders from various political parties to have a clear action plan for the country.
“At the moment, the political debate is deprived of actual content. Even the pre-Budget statements are more of a series of slogans rather than actual implementable platforms,” he said.
Malaysia, he said, should not be distracted by politics and the nation needs a clear action plan to restore confidence, especially among investors.
“Investors need to know what they can expect in terms of labour, taxes, incentives as well as free trade,” he said.
Another important consideration for the government is the reforms pledged under the memorandum of understanding with Pakatan.
Top of the list is the much anticipated anti-party hopping law which is scheduled to be tabled in the Dewan Rakyat on July 18.
Other legislation includes the abolition of the mandatory death sentence as well as the political financing Bill.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said that it was important for at least the anti-hopping law to be gazetted before GE15.
“This is to prevent elected reps from jumping after the general election.
“If the Bill is not gazetted, party hopping will happen. This will create instability and will be bad for the country,” he said.
Considering the current political scenario, there could be a possibility that no one party can form the government by itself.
The five-year term of Parliament expires on July 15 next year. Elections must be held within 60 days of the dissolution.
